"Worse Than the War That Killed 3 Million"... Why Japan's Crisis Is So Dire

Japan's Population Falls by 3 Million in Five Years
Low Birthrate and Rapid Aging Accelerate Decline Threefold

Tokyo, Japan, stock photo. Not directly related to the text. Screenshot from the official Tokyo tourism website.

Japan's low birth rate and aging population crisis have escalated into a structural disaster threatening the country's very existence, far beyond a simple population decline. According to recently released demographic statistics, Japan's total population has plummeted by nearly 3.1 million over the past five years, marking the worst decline in its history. While this figure is comparable to the demographic shock experienced during the Pacific War, experts note that, unlike the temporary external shock of that era, the current crisis is a demographic vicious cycle driven by both low birth rates and an aging population. As a result, Japan is now seen as entering a full-fledged phase of population contraction.

Japan’s population fell by over 3 million in five years to 123.05 million... The pace of decline is accelerating

According to the “2025 National Census Provisional Population Count” released by Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, as of October last year, Japan’s total population stood at 123,049,524. This represents a decrease of 3.09 million (2.5%) compared to 2020, marking the largest drop since surveys began in 1920.

The speed of decline is also accelerating. Compared to the 0.7% decline between 2015 and 2020, the rate has increased nearly threefold in just five years. Since peaking at 128.05 million in 2010, the total population has fallen by approximately 5 million in fifteen years.

"More severe than war"… Structural decline, not a temporary shock

This is the first time since the Pacific War that Japan’s population has dropped by more than 3 million in five years. During the war, approximately 3 million Japanese people—both military and civilian—lost their lives.

Stock photo of Tokyo, Japan. Not directly related to the main text. Screenshot from the official Tokyo tourism website.

However, the current situation is fundamentally different. While the population decline during the war was a temporary setback caused by external factors, the present decline is interpreted as the result of accumulated structural contradictions within society.

In fact, following the war, Japan experienced a rapid economic recovery and produced the so-called “Dankai Generation” (baby boomers), which led to a 15.3% surge in total population. In contrast, today’s Japan has lost the momentum to reverse the declining birth rate, and the downward population trend is becoming entrenched.

Deaths now outnumber births… Aging population approaches 30%

The core driver of population decline is the rapid aging of society. This survey found that the proportion of people aged 65 and older reached 29.4%, nearly one-third of the total population. Meanwhile, the share of the population aged 14 and younger was only 11.2%.

As the number of people in the childbearing age group falls rapidly and the elderly population continues to grow, the number of deaths now far exceeds the number of births. With the very foundation for childbirth weakening over time, unless a dramatic turnaround occurs, the rate of decline is expected to accelerate further.

Tokyo, Japan. Archival photo. Not directly related to the main text. Screenshot from the official Tokyo tourism website.

However, the total number of households has actually increased. As single-person households continue to rise, the total number of households in Japan reached a record high of 57.12 million. On the other hand, the average household size has fallen to just 2.15 people—the lowest since surveys began in 1970.

Japanese government abandons “growth,” opts for “orderly contraction”

The Japanese government has already shifted its policy focus from population growth to “managing decline.” The Population Strategy Council, established in 2024, has proposed stabilizing the population at around 80 million by 2100. Rather than trying to increase the population again, the emphasis is on easing the speed of decline and maintaining the social system.

This trend carries important implications for South Korea as well. While South Korea’s total population is still growing, its birth rate is even lower than Japan’s. Given that a long-term population decline is already projected, many experts believe that the changes Japan is experiencing are likely to be repeated in South Korea in the near future.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.