It Was Neither France Nor Argentina... Goldman Sachs Predicts World Cup Winner

Goldman Sachs' Proprietary Analysis Incorporates Elo Ratings and Recent Performance

Spain Leads with 26% Chance of Victory, Ahead of France and Argentina

Goldman Sachs has identified Spain as the country with the highest probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, which kicks off next month.

According to Yonhap News on May 30, citing foreign media outlets, the global investment bank Goldman Sachs calculated Spain's probability of winning the World Cup at 26% using its proprietary prediction model. This is the highest figure among the major contenders.

France followed with a 19% chance, and Argentina ranked next with a 14% probability. Brazil came in at 8%, and England at 5%.

Goldman Sachs explained that although France is ranked higher than Spain in the official FIFA rankings, Spain received the highest evaluations under the Elo rating system and offensive metrics. The bank attributed Spain’s increased probability of winning to its consistently stable performance and high goal-scoring ability in recent years.

Ramin Yamal of FC Barcelona, who joined the Spanish national soccer team participating in the 2026 FIFA North and Central America World Cup. Photo by Yonhap News

The Elo rating system, originally developed for chess rankings, differs from the official FIFA rankings, which only consider wins and losses; it takes into account the strength of the opposing team and the importance of the match. A team earns more points for defeating a strong opponent and loses more points for losing to a weaker team. The points fluctuate even more in highly significant matches, such as the World Cup or continental championships.

For this reason, the Elo rating is regarded as a more accurate indicator of a team's current strength and is widely used by national football associations, sports data companies, and betting markets. Goldman Sachs explained that it analyzed approximately 20,000 international match data points since 1978, combining them with Elo ratings, and comprehensively assessed each team’s offensive power, recent performance, tournament dynamics, and geographic factors related to the host region to produce its results.

Meanwhile, France is also considered a strong contender, but its probability declined somewhat because it is likely to face Spain in the semifinals and lose.

Argentina, the defending champion from the previous tournament, saw its expected probability drop due to the so-called "defending champion's curse." It was noted that many previous World Cup winners have failed to meet expectations in the subsequent tournament.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs noted that England received a lower evaluation than market forecasts, taking into account its past World Cup performances and projected matchups.

Goldman Sachs plans to update its predictions daily to reflect actual match outcomes once the tournament begins.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.