"Has the Countdown to a Major Earthquake Begun?"... Japan Shaken by Scenario Predicting '20,000 Deaths'

Japan Drafts Revision to ‘Basic Plan for Promoting Emergency Countermeasures’
Death Toll Could Reach 18,000 in Worst-Case Scenario
Aims to Halve Casualties Within 10 Years

The Japanese government has drafted a revised disaster countermeasure plan that aims to reduce the expected number of deaths from a potential directly-under-capital-region earthquake to less than half within the next 10 years.

According to Kyodo News on May 29, the Japanese government has prepared a revision of the "Basic Plan for the Promotion of Emergency Measures" to prepare for a directly-under-capital-region earthquake. The government has set a goal to reduce the number of deaths, currently estimated at up to about 18,000, to less than half within the next 10 years.

A two-story house in a residential area of Kanazawa, Ishikawa Prefecture, central Honshu, Japan, was toppled backward by an earthquake that occurred in January 2024. The photo is not related to the specific content of the article. Photo by Yonhap News.

A directly-under-capital-region earthquake refers to a large-scale earthquake occurring directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area and surrounding regions. The Japanese government forecasts a 70% probability that such an earthquake will occur within the next 30 years.

This revision is the first in 10 years since 2015. It reflects the latest damage estimates released by the Japanese government in December of last year.

The government, recognizing that building fires have caused significant casualties, plans to expand the distribution of "seismic circuit breakers," which automatically cut off electricity when an earthquake is detected. The installation rate of seismic circuit breakers, currently at about 20%, will be raised to near-universal levels.

A seismic circuit breaker is a device that automatically shuts off the power supply when strong shaking is detected, in order to prevent fires caused by short circuits or electrical faults.

The government has also strengthened fire prevention measures and raised its fatality reduction target from "roughly half" to "more than half."

In addition, the government plans to revise related measures to adapt to changes in the social environment, such as diversifying information delivery methods.

The Japanese government estimates that if the installation rate of seismic circuit breakers reaches 100%, the number of buildings destroyed by fire, currently estimated at about 402,000, could be reduced by around 70%.

The revised plan also includes a focus on disaster prevention measures in the "emergency countermeasure zone," which consists of Tokyo and nine surrounding prefectures. It also encourages individuals to secure furniture in their homes and stockpile at least three days’ worth of food and water per household.

The revised plan is expected to be finalized as early as next month after approval by the Cabinet.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.