"US Sees Possible Cuban Regime Collapse as Early as This Summer... Conducts Tabletop Exercises"

Popular Uprising Expected Amid Economic Crisis

Some Note Differences From Venezuela

As the Trump administration intensifies its economic pressure on the Cuban regime, it is reportedly considering military response scenarios, believing that the Cuban government could collapse as early as this summer.

The U.S. online media outlet Axios reported this on the 28th (local time), citing American officials. The outlet explained that President Donald Trump has not approved an invasion of Cuba, but is instead pursuing a strategy of gradually tightening economic sanctions to pressure the regime. A senior U.S. official told Axios, "We do not yet want to completely overthrow the regime," adding, "There is a staged process involved."

On the 25th (local time), a blackout occurred in Havana, Cuba. Photo by EPA Yonhap News

The reason the United States is choosing a gradual pressure strategy rather than immediately invading Cuba is also influenced by the war in Iran. The idea is to buy time while President Trump focuses on peace negotiations with Iran, and then shift attention to the Cuba issue afterward. Another senior official said, "The Iran issue is not over yet, and the President is not rushing," adding, "President Trump wants to use every tool available to him. However, there are not as many tools at his disposal as there used to be."

The Trump administration previously ousted the Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela, which served as the lifeline of the Cuban economy, to intensify pressure on Cuba. As a result, Venezuela's oil supply was cut off, pushing Cuba into an economic crisis. The country is now facing power shortages and worsening public safety, with large and small anti-government protests breaking out across Cuba. A source noted that citizens deprived of electricity in the sweltering heat could take to the streets in anger, saying, "Then what will happen?"

It appears that the United States has entered the preparation stage for military operations in response to potential popular uprisings caused by summer heat waves. According to a senior official, the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees the Caribbean, conducted a government-wide tabletop exercise last month to prepare for the possibility of military intervention in Cuba. The official stated, "All options are on the table, but there is no invasion plan or anything imminent," while emphasizing, "If the President orders it, we are prepared for any situation."

However, one close aide to President Trump drew a line, saying, "The President does not want to have ground troops stationed for more than 48 hours," and added, "There is a risk of getting bogged down, and the situation could become very messy."

Earlier, on the 1st of this month, President Trump imposed sanctions on GAESA, the state-run company that serves as the core financial source for the Cuban regime, as well as on foreign companies doing business with GAESA, and arrested the sister of GAESA's general manager. A former Treasury official assessed that this measure would lead to the withdrawal of the remaining foreign financial institutions and companies from Spain, Panama, Mexico, and other countries in Cuba.

However, some within the Trump administration argue that the situations in Cuba and Venezuela are different. They point out that there is no pro-American transitional figure like Venezuelan Vice President (Acting President) Delcy Rodriguez to lead a pro-U.S. interim government, and that even if Castro is arrested, the likelihood of Cuba abruptly shifting to a pro-American stance is low.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.