"Another Record High Possible Within 5 Years"...WMO Warns Arctic Warming Three Times Faster Than Global Average [Reading Science]

91% Chance of Exceeding 1.5 Degrees Within 5 Years...
86% Likelihood of Breaking the 2024 Temperature Record
Arctic Warming Rate 3.5 Times the Global Average
"Prepare for Heatwaves, Heavy Rain, and Wildfires as the New Normal"

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is an 86% chance that the global average temperature will once again reach a record high within the next five years. The likelihood of a year in which the global average temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels has also risen to 91%.

The scientific community is sounding the alarm that the "climate crisis has already become part of daily life," and experts are pointing out that national strategies must be redesigned to address extreme weather events such as heat waves, torrential rains, and wildfires.

Reference photo to aid understanding of the article. Steam is rising from heating systems in buildings in downtown Seoul. Photo by Jo Yongjun

On the afternoon of May 28 (Korea Standard Time), the WMO released its "Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU)," projecting that between 2026 and 2030, the global average temperature each year will be between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.

This report was led by the UK Met Office, a leading center for 1-to-10-year climate predictions within the WMO, with participation from 13 institutions, including the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Korea.

According to the report, there is a 91% probability that the average temperature in at least one of the next five years will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels—an increase from last year's estimate of 86%. The likelihood that the five-year average will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius has also risen to 75%, up from 70% in the previous report.

Notably, the analysis found an 86% chance that at least one year in the next five will be hotter than 2024, which currently holds the record for the highest global temperature.

The pace of Arctic warming was found to be even more pronounced. The report predicts that, over the next five years, the average winter temperature (November to March) in the Arctic will be 2.8 degrees Celsius higher than the average of the past 30 years. This rate is more than 3.5 times faster than the projected global average temperature increase over the same period. The average sea ice concentration in some Arctic regions over the next decade is also expected to decrease compared to the past 30-year average.

Professor Yesang Uk of the Department of Climate and Energy System Engineering at Ewha Womans University commented, "It is particularly noteworthy that the year with the highest recorded temperature was as recent as 2024, and yet a new record is projected within the next five years. Considering the forecast for a strong El Nino and reduced Arctic sea ice, the likelihood of a record temperature in 2027 is a very concrete result."

He further pointed out, "The average temperature in East Asia is showing a faster warming trend than the global average. It is necessary to pay close attention to the various social and economic responses to this rapid warming."

Jaeho Oh, CEO of Nano Weather, diagnosed that Arctic warming is fundamentally altering atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes. He explained, "As Arctic temperatures rise, the jet stream weakens and meanders more, which can lead to prolonged periods of heat waves, heavy rainfall, or drought in specific regions. Responding to the climate crisis should go beyond national policies and involve the establishment of ultra-detailed disaster management systems that can predict risks down to the township, town, and neighborhood levels."

Within the scientific community, there is a growing call to discuss both carbon neutrality and climate adaptation strategies, now that the '1.5-degree threshold' is being surpassed.

Professor Koo Jaho of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Yonsei University stated, "A 1.5-degree rise has been considered the baseline at which the global climate system enters an irreversible state. Now is the time to push carbon neutrality policies more aggressively, while simultaneously initiating discussions on social systems that can adapt to the new climate environment."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.