Russia Struggles in War... Signals Large-Scale Airstrikes and Nuclear Threats Against Ukraine

Missile Attack Immediately After Ceasefire Ended

Use of Ballistic Missiles Capable of Carrying Nuclear Warheads

Territorial Expansion in May Significantly Slows

Analysts have stated that Russia’s large-scale airstrikes and nuclear threats against Ukraine reflect Moscow’s growing impatience to secure victory.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is delivering a video message at the Kremlin on the 28th (local time). Photo by TASS Yonhap News

The New York Times reported on the 27th (local time) that Russia is attempting to demonstrate its strength and capacity to escalate, as it faces a stalemate both on the front lines and at the negotiating table.

Immediately after the U.S.-brokered short-term ceasefire ended, Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Ukraine on the 14th. Between the night of the 23rd and the early morning of the 24th, Russia fired 90 missiles—including the hypersonic ballistic missile “Oreshnik”—and 600 drones at Kyiv and its surrounding areas, resulting in four deaths and more than 80 injuries. This is considered the largest missile and drone attack since the war began in 2022. Russia also urged diplomats and foreigners in Kyiv to leave the city.

In particular, the Oreshnik missile used by Russia in the Kyiv airstrike has a range of up to 5,000 km. As it is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, it has drawn criticism from the international community. European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas wrote on her social media platform X (formerly Twitter), “Moscow’s use of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile is a political tactic of fear and a reckless game of nuclear brinkmanship.”

The scene of Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, devastated by Russian airstrikes on the 27th (local time). Photo by AFP Yonhap News

Statistically, May is when Russia typically launches major offensives, but the fact that it has only carried out minor attacks this month further supports this speculation. According to “DeepState,” a website that monitors the situation in Ukraine, Russia is expected to record its slowest territorial expansion in over a year this month. Tatiana Stanovaya, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, stated, “Russia’s military superiority, maintained for several years, is beginning to diminish,” and noted that there is a growing discourse advocating for increased escalation.

Another factor pressuring Russia is that U.S. President Donald Trump, who had positioned himself as a peace mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war, is now focusing on the U.S.-Iran conflict and is losing interest in mediating the dispute. Since the Middle East war began on February 28, U.S.-centered diplomatic mediation efforts have been virtually suspended.

Russian casualties also appear to be rising. The BBC reported that Anne Keast-Butler, Director of the UK’s Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), said in her recent inaugural speech that since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it is estimated that around 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. This figure is more than double the 224,000 deaths confirmed and counted by the BBC.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.