The Race as Seen Through Opinion Polls Before the "Blackout" Period

With the so-called "blackout" period approaching ahead of the 9th nationwide local elections—during which the publication and reporting of opinion polls is prohibited—attention is focusing on the final direction of the race.

According to political circles on May 28, both the Democratic Party of Korea and the People Power Party have identified regions such as Seoul, Busan, and Ulsan as key battlegrounds. Jeonbuk, where independent candidate Kim Kwan-young and Democratic Party candidate Lee Wantak are competing, is also being closely watched as a major battleground.

On the 21st, the official election campaign for the June 3 local elections began, and election officials from the Seoul Election Commission were putting up election posters on a street in Jongno-gu, Seoul. 2026.05.21 Photo by Dongju Yoon

In Seoul, poll results vary significantly by survey. According to a survey conducted by the Dong-A Ilbo from May 24 to 26, Democratic Party candidate Jung Won-oh led with 49.6%, ahead of People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon, who polled at 36.4%, a margin outside the margin of error. However, some automated response (ARS) surveys show a tighter race. In Busan, the Dong-A Ilbo survey indicated a close contest, with Democratic Party candidate Jeon Jae-soo at 45.8% and People Power Party candidate Park Hyung-joon at 39.5%, within the margin of error.

In Daegu and Gyeongnam, the ruling party views the race as competitive, while the opposition party sees itself as leading. According to a survey conducted by the Busan Ilbo on May 24–25 in Gyeongnam, People Power Party candidate Park Wansu polled at 46.3%, while Democratic Party candidate Kim Kyungsoo received 41.5%. Conversely, in Chungnam, where the ruling party claims the lead and the opposition argues for a close race, a survey by Daejeon MBC on May 24–25 showed Democratic Party candidate Park Soo-hyun at 44% and People Power Party candidate Kim Tae-heum at 35%.

In the 14 by-elections and rerun elections nationwide, the ruling party has identified five constituencies as battlegrounds: Pyeongtaek-eul in Gyeonggi, Buk-gu-gap in Busan, Dalseong-gun in Daegu, Nam-gu-gap in Ulsan, and Gongju/Buyeo/Cheongyang in Chungnam. Within the People Power Party, there is optimism about two to three districts in addition to Dalseong in Daegu, which is their traditional stronghold.

Among these, Pyeongtaek-eul in Gyeonggi, which has drawn attention due to the candidacy of a third-party contender with presidential aspirations, and Buk-gap in Busan are experiencing particularly close races where no clear frontrunner has emerged. Even in the traditionally conservative region of Gongju, Buyeo, and Cheongyang in Chungnam, the race remains unpredictable. According to a by-election survey conducted by Daejeon MBC on May 25–26 in these areas, Democratic Party candidate Kim Youngbin polled at 33%, People Power Party candidate Yoon Yonggeun at 32%, and independent candidate Kim Hyukjong at 6%.

The Dong-A Ilbo survey cited in this article was conducted by Research & Research with 800 residents each in Seoul and Busan. The Busan Ilbo survey was conducted by Ace Research with 1,002 residents in Gyeongnam. The Daejeon MBC survey was conducted by Korea Research with 800 residents each in Daejeon, and 501 residents in Gongju, Buyeo, and Cheongyang, Chungnam. Research & Research and Korea Research used wireless telephone interviews, while Ace Research used the ARS method. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points for Gyeongnam, ±3.5 percentage points for Seoul, Busan, and Daejeon, and ±4.4 percentage points for Gongju, Buyeo, and Cheongyang at a 95% confidence level. For more detailed information, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.