Trump Turns Texas Into a Wild Card... Will It Become the Hottest Battleground in the U.S. Midterms?

Pro-Trump Paxton Secures Senate Nomination by Defeating Incumbent

With the full backing of U.S. President Donald Trump, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has won the Republican Senate primary, turning Texas—traditionally a Republican stronghold—into one of the most hotly contested battlegrounds for the upcoming midterm elections. The Democratic Party is eyeing a possible win in Texas for the first time in over 30 years, hoping to capitalize on the numerous scandals surrounding Paxton. On the other hand, some within the Republican Party worry that President Trump's strong influence could actually diminish their competitiveness in the general election.

According to the New York Times (NYT) on May 26 (local time), Paxton secured his place in the general election by defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn by a wide margin in the Republican primary runoff the previous day. Observers note that Paxton gained momentum after President Trump declared his "Complete and Total Endorsement."

U.S. President Donald Trump smiling brightly while delivering a speech. Photo by Yonhap News

This outcome carries significance beyond a local Texas election. Currently, the Senate is composed of 53 seats held by Republicans and 47 by Democrats. For the Democrats to regain the Senate majority, they must defend all of their current seats and win at least four additional ones. While Democrats had previously considered states like Ohio, Maine, North Carolina, and Alaska as key battlegrounds, Texas has recently been cited as an "expanded battlefield."

The Democrats' optimism largely stems from Paxton's high unfavorability ratings. He has been embroiled in a number of controversies, including charges of securities fraud, impeachment, ethical scandals, and a public divorce lawsuit. Paxton is also a staunch pro-Trump figure, having led the lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2020 presidential election results and participated in the rally just before the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

James Talarico, the Democratic candidate and a Texas state representative, immediately went on the offensive, calling Paxton "the most corrupt politician in America." A seminary student, Talarico is leveraging his Christian faith and message of inclusive politics as part of his strategy to appeal to centrist voters. In particular, he is openly reaching out to moderate Republican voters, including supporters of Cornyn.

The NYT also analyzed that demographic changes could favor Democrats. Texas has one of the highest proportions of Hispanic residents in the United States. Recent national polls indicate that Democratic support among Hispanic voters is rising again. According to an NYT/Siena College poll, Democrats lead among registered Hispanic voters by 54% to 24%. While President Trump made significant inroads with Hispanic voters in Texas during the 2024 presidential election, helping to secure the state for Republicans, recent trends suggest this advantage has weakened.

Democrats claim that if they match their 2024 levels of white voter support and recover Hispanic support to the levels seen in 2016, Texas will become a toss-up. Some recent polls have even shown Paxton trailing Talarico.

However, many caution that it is too early to be optimistic about a Democratic victory. The last time a Democratic candidate won a statewide race in Texas was in 1994. Talarico himself is facing intense attacks from Republicans, particularly over his progressive statements such as "God is nonbinary" and support for abortion rights. The Republican Party has already labeled him a "woke weirdo" candidate, drawing clear battle lines for the general election.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.