"Already Dreading It": Two Reasons Why an "Unprecedented Heatwave" Is Expected This Summer

Higher Likelihood of Heatwaves and Tropical Nights Than Usual
Factors Include Arctic Sea Ice Reduction and High North Pacific Sea Temperatures

There is an outlook that heatwaves and tropical nights are likely to occur more frequently than usual this summer. Factors such as the decrease in Arctic sea ice, high sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, and the potential development of El Nino have been identified as contributors that could intensify the heat on the Korean Peninsula.

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According to Yonhap News on May 27, Lee Myung-In, a professor at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST) and director of the Korea Meteorological Administration’s Heatwave Special Weather Research Center, stated at a weather lecture held by the Korea Meteorological Administration that "the likelihood of heatwaves and tropical nights occurring this summer is much higher than normal."

Professor Lee cited the reduction in Arctic sea ice as the first signal that this summer’s heat could be severe. According to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), as of March 15, the Arctic sea ice area was 14.29 million square kilometers, marking the smallest level in 48 years since satellite observations began. The Arctic sea ice is expected to remain at its lowest levels through June.

He explained that the melting of Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents-Kara Sea region, is related to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. When the positive Arctic Oscillation occurs, cold air from the Arctic is prevented from moving down to the mid-latitudes, causing high-pressure systems to stagnate in those regions and leading to a rise in temperatures. He noted that severe heatwaves in both 1994 and 2018 were also associated with this phenomenon.

The continued high sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific since 2020 have also been identified as a factor raising the likelihood of heatwaves. When North Pacific sea temperatures are high, hot air and moisture can flow into the Korean Peninsula, resulting in so-called "steaming heat."

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Professor Lee said, "When sea surface temperatures rise, not only the Korean Peninsula but the entire Northern Hemisphere is more likely to experience higher temperatures, and the heat energy accumulated in the seawater also increases the potential for heatwaves."

However, El Nino, which is expected to develop strongly this summer, was identified as a variable. Professor Lee explained that while a strong El Nino can raise global temperatures, its impact on the Korean Peninsula remains uncertain.

He stated, "Over the past three years, Arctic sea ice has decreased to record lows, and North Pacific sea temperatures have also remained high. With these conditions persisting this year, the likelihood of heatwaves and tropical nights in Korea is higher than average."

Previously, the Korea Meteorological Administration projected that the probability of temperatures being higher than normal in June and July is 60% each, and 50% in August.

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