Local Elections Enter 'Blackout Period'... Spotlight on Battleground Regions

Publication of Opinion Poll Results Banned Until Election Day
Focus on Whether Battleground Trends Will Continue Until the End
"No Major Shifts Expected... Unforeseen Variables Still Possible"

With the 9th nationwide simultaneous local elections scheduled for June 3, a six-day "blackout election period" will commence on the 28th. During this period, any opinion polls conducted cannot be released or reported. As fierce competition unfolds across the country, attention is focused on whether the ruling party will maintain its lead during the blackout period or if the opposition will succeed with a golden cross.

Officials from the Seoul Metropolitan Election Commission conducted a publicity campaign on the 18th at Yeouido Hangang Park in Seoul, operating an unmanned aerial vehicle to encourage participation in the 9th nationwide simultaneous local elections.

According to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission on the 27th, the release and reporting of opinion polls conducted from the 28th until the close of voting on election day (June 3 at 6 p.m.) will be prohibited. However, opinion polls conducted by the 27th may still be released or reported after the 28th, provided the timing of the survey is clearly specified.

The commission prohibits the release of opinion polls conducted after the 28th because, as election day draws near, such polls can directly influence the outcome, and if unfair or inaccurate surveys undermine the fairness of the election, it becomes difficult to rectify the situation.

The period is referred to as the blackout period because it becomes difficult to predict the outcome based on available indicators. While conducting opinion polls during this time is not itself prohibited, since their release and reporting are banned, it becomes challenging for anyone other than those directly or indirectly involved in the election to gauge shifts in public sentiment.

Currently, both parties classify 6 to 7 regions—including Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Ulsan, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, and Gyeongnam—as battlegrounds. Shin Dongwook, Supreme Council member of the People Power Party, appeared on CBS’s "Park Seongtae’s News Show" the previous day and said, "The gap is narrowing rapidly, and in much of the Yeongnam region, we believe a golden cross has been achieved."

Cho Seungrae, head of the Democratic Party’s election campaign committee, also commented, "While it is true that there is a certain degree of conservative consolidation centered on the Yeongnam region, when conservatives rally, supporters of both the ruling party and President Lee Jaemyung also unite in response." He added, "Our goal is to win as many of the six battlegrounds as possible."

In political circles, it is generally accepted that the results of opinion polls conducted two weeks before the election day, when the official campaign begins, closely match the final election results. However, given that this election began with the ruling party enjoying an overwhelming lead but has since evolved into fierce competition in various regions, there are expectations that the conventional wisdom may not apply this time.

Park Sungmin, CEO of Min Political Consulting, said in a phone interview, "Despite the president’s approval rating being over 60 percent, we are seeing an unusual situation where simulated matchups between the ruling and opposition candidates are highly competitive." He continued, "Because the choices of undecided moderate and conservative voters may crystallize during the blackout period, the outcome could differ from the past."

However, some believe the overall landscape has not fundamentally changed. Kim Chongin, former emergency committee chair, stated, "I see no significant changes overall. I expect results similar to the 7th local elections in 2018," adding, "This is because the People Power Party is contesting the election having completely lost public trust as a political party."

Of course, observers note that unexpected variables remain. Political commentator Lee Jonghoon said, "At this point, most voters have made up their minds, so major shifts are unlikely," but added, "Unexpected setbacks such as major gaffes or last-minute candidate unification could still play a decisive role."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.