[Interview] Yeouido Research Institute Head Cho Seunghwan: "Neck-and-Neck Battle in Seoul and Yeongnam... Key Is Consolidating the Support Base"

[Key Points to Watch in the June 3 Local Elections: Ruling and Opposition Party Prospects]

Seungwhan Cho, a member of the People Power Party and Director of the Yeouido Research Institute, is being interviewed by The Asia Business Daily at the National Assembly on May 20, 2026. Photo by Hyunmin Kim

"Observing the government and ruling party's behavior, voters are increasingly anxious that 'it would be disastrous if we handed over even local power.' This is why regions once considered difficult for us are now becoming battlegrounds. The key issue is how the People Power Party can translate this sentiment into actual votes."

On May 21, Cho Seunghwan, Head of the Yeouido Research Institute for the People Power Party, sat down for an interview with The Asia Business Daily at the National Assembly Members' Office Building in Yeouido, Seoul. Regarding the outlook for the 9th nationwide local elections scheduled for June 3, he commented, "Concerns are growing over the government and ruling party undermining the rule of law and the market economy, as seen in controversies like the special prosecutor for withdrawal of indictment and the national dividend debate. At the same time, the qualifications of candidates from the Democratic Party of Korea are being questioned, which is increasing unease among swing voters."

Born in Yeongdo District, Busan, Cho graduated from Daedong High School and Korea University. He entered public service after passing the 34th civil service exam and later served as Minister of Oceans and Fisheries under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. Subsequently, he was elected to the 22nd National Assembly (representing Jung-gu and Yeongdo-gu in Busan) and was appointed head of the party’s think tank, the Yeouido Research Institute, under the leadership of Jang Donghyuk.

Cho stated, "The gap is narrowing in Seoul, a major battleground, and support rates in Daegu, Busan, and Ulsan have also tightened to within the margin of error, making the race extremely close." Regarding the parliamentary by-elections, he noted, "Many of these constituencies previously had lawmakers from the ruling party, and the likelihood of straight-ticket voting is high." Besides Dalseong County in Daegu, he cited Nam-gu Gap in Ulsan, Gongju, Buyeo, and Cheongyang in South Chungcheong Province, and Pyeongtaek-eul in Gyeonggi Province as constituencies worth contesting.

He added, "The special prosecutor for withdrawal of indictment has had a major impact. Concerns about the ruling party have overshadowed internal disputes within the People Power Party and are uniting conservatives." He continued, "At the very least, people are starting to feel that, when it comes to Seoul’s real estate policy, it would be better to have an opposition party capable of pursuing independent policies rather than simply following the central government’s ideological direction."

The crucial factor is rallying a disengaged support base. Cho said, "Turnout in local elections is typically around 50–55%, so the outcome hinges on how well we can mobilize our base to vote. We will work to firmly consolidate our traditional supporters and find ways to connect the hidden 'shy' vote to both support and turnout."

On the subject of opposition alliances and candidate unification, Cho remarked, "Ultimately, it’s up to the people to decide." As for the party's electoral goals, he said, "It’s important to maintain and regain competitiveness in key regions such as the Seoul metropolitan area and Yeongnam, and to establish a healthy system of checks and balances not only among local government heads but also within metropolitan and basic councils."

The following is a Q&A with Cho Seunghwan.

-How do you see the nationwide race unfolding?

▲As confirmed by the Yeouido Research Institute and various opinion polls, the gap in Seoul is narrowing, and conservatives are consolidating in Daegu. Busan and South Gyeongsang Province are also seeing closely contested races within the margin of error. In particular, the conservative rallying trend is becoming increasingly pronounced in the Yeongnam area.

-What is your outlook for the basic local government head elections?

▲It is difficult to analyze the local government head elections in aggregate nationwide, but if we restrict the assessment to Busan, the People Power Party is in a relatively strong position. However, since the 7th local elections in 2018, Democratic Party-affiliated local governments have developed their own political resources and organizations, which cannot be underestimated. It will not be an easy race. That said, I believe we can secure a majority of seats in metropolitan and basic councils based on constituency analysis.

-How do you assess the by-elections being held simultaneously with the local elections?

▲Many of these constituencies previously had lawmakers from the ruling party. Since the by-elections coincide with the local elections, voters will receive a total of eight ballots, increasing the likelihood of so-called straight-ticket voting. It is difficult to predict the exact number of seats, but in addition to Dalseong County in Daegu, we see favorable trends in Nam-gu Gap in Ulsan, Gongju, Buyeo, and Cheongyang in South Chungcheong Province, and Pyeongtaek-eul in Gyeonggi Province as promising areas as well.

-What explains the emergence of close races in areas such as Seoul, Daegu, and Busan?

▲This is the result of the public’s growing desire for balance in response to the one-sided governance of the Democratic Party and the Lee Jaemyung administration. Public concern is mounting over issues that undermine market principles and the rule of law, such as the Samsung Electronics excess profit sharing controversy and the special prosecutor bill for withdrawal of indictment. This is making swing voters increasingly uneasy. Furthermore, controversies surrounding the qualifications of opposition candidates—such as candidate Jeon Jae-soo’s alleged receipt of money from the Unification Church, candidate Jeong Won-oh’s assault scandal, and candidate Kim Sang-wook’s suspected involvement in overseas prostitution—are also having an impact.

-Do you believe the special prosecutor for withdrawal of indictment has had a significant impact?

▲I believe it has had a very strong effect, generating public concern and backlash. During the presidential campaign, President Lee Jaemyung said he would not stand trial while in office, but once in power, he pursued policies such as introducing a four-tier court system, increasing the number of Supreme Court justices, and establishing new offenses for judicial distortion, all aimed at controlling the trial process. Now, he has gone one step further by proposing to eliminate trials altogether and erase his own crimes. These concerns are being directly reflected in voter sentiment.

-How does your support base view internal party conflicts?

▲As the Democratic Party has been acting recklessly in this election phase, citizens are increasingly alarmed at the prospect of losing even local power. When we meet our supporters in the regions, the most common message is "Don’t fight among yourselves (conservatives)." Concerns about the ruling party are overshadowing internal disputes and serving to unite the conservative base.

-Could you elaborate on the situation in Seoul, the most critical region for the local elections?

▲The data currently point to an extremely close race. In particular, voter sentiment along the Han River Belt is most sensitive to real estate and day-to-day economic issues. Despite warnings of a market freeze, the government has pushed ahead with tax increases, treating homeowners as if they were troublemakers. These real estate issues, which had been overshadowed by the high approval ratings during the presidential honeymoon period, are now surfacing as tangible side effects ahead of the local elections and are resonating directly with citizens. Homeowners are unable to sell their properties freely and are burdened by high property taxes; this has fueled a strong sense of crisis in Seoul that, "If we lose local power, the government will do as it pleases. We must prevent this at all costs." There is a growing sentiment among citizens that, at the very least, it would be better to have an opposition party capable of pursuing an independent real estate policy, rather than simply following the central government's ideological direction.

-What is your assessment of Gyeonggi Province, which has the largest population?

▲Looking at candidate recognition, the ruling party’s and president’s approval ratings, it is objectively a difficult race. However, even in Gyeonggi Province, candidate qualifications are becoming a focal point. Choo Mi-ae, the Democratic Party candidate, seems to be relying solely on her solid base and the party’s approval ratings, but public opposition will likely grow over time. If her "hardline image" becomes more pronounced, the dynamics could change dramatically in the final stages. The ongoing Samsung strike will also have a significant impact on the election. In the Seoul mayoral race, everyone thought it was unwinnable at first, but within just a few days, the gap narrowed considerably. I expect even greater volatility once the official campaign period begins.

-Could you explain your strategy for increasing support in these close races?

▲Fundamentally, it is up to each candidate to work hard on the ground. At the party headquarters level, we will consistently reinforce our policy direction and messaging. How sincerely our promises on issues such as youth, jobs, and women resonate with voters will be a key determinant of election success.

-Some say it’s critical to motivate disillusioned supporters to turn out on election day.

▲That is a very important point. Local election turnout typically ranges from 50–55%. Ultimately, the most critical factor is how effectively we can mobilize our support base. We must focus on firmly consolidating our traditional supporters. Additionally, there is a definite presence of "shy" voters. Since we are now the opposition, there are many supporters who do not actively participate in opinion polls. The key is how to bring this hidden support to the polls and translate it into votes.

-What is the leadership’s role in consolidating and expanding your support base?

▲At the national level, the special prosecutor for withdrawal of indictment will be the dominant issue, and the party leadership's messaging will focus squarely on that. We also plan to actively challenge our opponents’ qualifications in each local contest. Alongside region-specific policies, it is important to develop and emphasize policies tailored to youth and women. The central campaign committee will continue to identify and highlight such policies.

-During the remaining official campaign period, will you prioritize consolidating your base or appealing to the middle ground?

▲"Consolidation" is our top priority. We must also re-engage those whose support was weaker and who drifted away. The current situation is not simply a matter of changing our course to "expand toward the center." The party’s core focus is on "how to bring hesitant supporters back to the polls."

-What is the likelihood of a unified candidate among the broader conservative bloc, such as the Reform New Party?

▲We are not giving much consideration to candidate unification or alliances from a political engineering perspective. Ultimately, it is up to the voters. If public opinion strongly favors "uniting behind one side," then votes will naturally coalesce. Conversely, if many voters decide, "I should support a third-party candidate," then the vote will split. As a party, we must do everything possible to consolidate the conservative bloc and create a clear two-way contest. Rather than pursuing artificial political alliances or mergers, past precedents suggest that, in the final stage of the election, votes will ultimately converge on one side.

-The Democratic Party is accelerating unified progressive candidacies in places like Ulsan, and some say the People Power Party also needs to coordinate the conservative field.

▲The Democratic Party may appear calm on the surface and enjoys the advantages of incumbency, with the president or party leader at the center. While things may seem noisy above the surface, there are actually many complex issues within their camp. We are not planning any forced alliances or mergers just for the sake of it. The right approach is to remain steadfast, work consistently, and let the people decide.

-In previous general and presidential elections, late-stage conservative consolidation in the Yeongnam region produced results contrary to opinion and exit polls. What do you expect this time?

▲Interpretations can differ depending on whether this was a case of late consolidation or simply flawed polling. It’s possible that opinion polls failed to capture the "shy" conservative vote. Today, voters are highly aware of when and where polls are conducted. Some enthusiastic supporters even respond using different age groups. Reports circulate in our supporters’ chat rooms that "all the samples for people in their 60s have already been filled." Polls only reveal trends; they do not decide the outcome.

-The party leader suggested winning Seoul and Busan as the standard for victory in this election. What is your own standard for victory?

▲I do not agree with the notion that "winning Seoul and Busan means victory" or "winning a certain number of metropolitan governments is success." The main issue is whether the party has laid the foundation to regain public trust as a party capable of governing. Specifically, we need to maintain and restore competitiveness in key regions such as the metropolitan area and Busan/Gyeongnam. Furthermore, it is also important to establish a healthy system of checks and balances in both metropolitan and basic local councils, not just among local government heads.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.