"Trump Showtime Is Coming Soon... Watch for October U.S. Stock Market Stimulus Moves" [Weekend Money]

Hana Securities Releases "2026 Second Half Outlook for U.S. Equities" Report
AI Investment Effects to Continue... Stock Market Stimulus Expected Ahead of Midterm Elections
Micron, Nvidia, Visa Among Top Stock Picks for the Second Half

Analysis suggests that the U.S. stock market in the second half of this year will benefit from both the effects of large-scale artificial intelligence (AI) investments and President Donald Trump's incentives to boost the market. With the November midterm elections approaching, there are expectations that President Trump will proactively pursue measures to stimulate consumption and the stock market, leveraging events such as the World Cup to boost his approval rating, which remains in the 30% range.

This perspective is outlined in a recently released report by Hana Securities titled ‘2026 Second Half Outlook for U.S. Stocks – Trump Showtime: AI Supercycle Momentum & Expanding Reshoring.’ Jaegoo Kang, the analyst who authored the report, explained, “The continued investment cycle by the U.S. government and platform companies, along with expectations for earnings improvement, are key reasons for the strong outlook on the U.S. stock market in the second half.”

Kang first highlighted that investment funds earmarked for the U.S., including AI capital expenditures, are estimated to reach between 10 trillion and 11 trillion. Kang stated, “The 9.6 trillion dollars that Trump will have secured from around the world using tariffs by 2025 is expected to flow into AI infrastructure, reshoring, defense weapon sales, and LNG exports.” He also noted, “The 2026 capital expenditure consensus for mega tech firms such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta is approximately 700 billion dollars.”

Kang also emphasized that both sales and earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies have been revised upward compared to the start of the year. The S&P 500’s sales per share (SPS) consensus has been raised by 2.8%, and the earnings per share (EPS) forecast by 7.1%. He assessed, “The fact that the EPS consensus has risen faster than sales forecasts since the first-quarter earnings season suggests limited cost increases and improving profitability.”

Furthermore, it is assessed that there are strong incentives to boost the stock market through October, ahead of the November midterm elections. President Trump’s approval rating is currently at 34%, the lowest in history. Kang remarked, “He faces the midterm elections in November starting from the worst possible position,” and added, “Given the structural difficulty of changing inflation or interest rates in the short term, stimulating consumption through events and propping up the stock market are virtually the only viable options.”

Accordingly, there is analysis that a cycle of events—including the UFC in June, the World Cup in June and July, and America’s 250th Independence Day in July—will stimulate consumption, improve corporate earnings, and lead to market gains. Kang assessed, “It would be advantageous for Trump to keep the S&P 500 above current levels through October,” and added, “Major events in the second half offer opportunities to rebound support among low-income and undecided voters.”

In particular, the 39-day period from the World Cup opening on June 11 to the final on July 19 is highlighted as a crucial phase. Kang stated, “With America 250 coinciding, the consumption momentum and positive performance narrative will reach their peak, making this the biggest inflection point of the second half.” He added, “To set the stock market at a historic high by October, Trump needs to fully capitalize on the event-driven effects from June to September.”

For the second half, the report’s recommended stocks from a supply bottleneck perspective include Micron, NVIDIA, Seagate, Coherent, and Galaxy Digital. Micron is expected to sustain its earnings momentum based on robust business conditions. For NVIDIA, positive factors cited include the full-scale production of Beralubin in the second half and H200 sales enabled by approvals for exports to China. Seagate is evaluated as a company that is simultaneously achieving growth in scale and profitability due to AI demand.

In addition, AMD and Amazon.com are recommended from the standpoint of market transformation and corporate evolution, while in the field of physical AI, NVIDIA’s robotics partner Noventa, machine vision leader Cognex, Regal Rexnord, and Timken are also highlighted. Visa is presented as the top pick for the consumption momentum theme. In contrast, healthcare and materials are mentioned as the least preferred sectors for the second half portfolio.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.