Seoul Housing Prices Remain High... 70% of Real Estate Experts Expect Stabilization Next Year or in 2028

2026 KB Real Estate Report Released
"Possibility of Eased Polarization Between Capital and Non-Capital Regions"

According to a recent survey, about 70% of real estate experts and certified real estate agents expect housing prices in Seoul and the greater metropolitan area to stabilize either next year or in 2028. Policy was cited as the biggest variable for this year's real estate market, while the polarization between the capital region and non-capital regions is expected to somewhat ease.

Apartments in the Jamsil area, Songpa-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jojongjun

Housing Price Outlook for This Year: Slight Majority Expect Increase

On May 5, KB Financial Group published the "2026 KB Real Estate Report," containing these findings. The report was based on two rounds of surveys and field feedback from about 700 respondents, including real estate experts, certified real estate agents, and private bankers (PB), conducted in January and April of this year.

According to the report, market experts and certified real estate agents held divergent views on this year's real estate price outlook. Among market experts, 56% predicted an increase in prices, whereas 54% of certified real estate agents expected prices to decline.

However, the proportion predicting a price increase dropped significantly compared to January. For market experts, the figure fell by 25 percentage points from 81% to 56%, and for certified real estate agents, it declined by 30 percentage points from 76% to 46%.

Major reasons cited for a rise in sale prices included a shortage of housing supply and increased construction costs leading to higher presale prices. Conversely, tighter lending regulations and heavier tax burdens were pointed out as factors driving prices downward.

The report also forecast that price fluctuations would not be significant. In the greater metropolitan area, market experts expected a rise of 1-3%, while certified real estate agents predicted a 0-1% increase. Both groups anticipated price declines in non-capital regions.

2026 Nationwide Housing Sale Price Outlook. KB Financial Group

"Seoul Housing Prices Expected to Stabilize Next Year or Later; Non-Capital Regions Could Recover as Early as Next Year"

The housing market in Seoul and the metropolitan area is expected to stabilize next year or later. Among market experts, 36% identified next year as the most likely point of stabilization for this previously overheated market, followed by 32% who chose 2028, 29% who selected the second half of this year, and 3% who cited the first half of this year. Among certified real estate agents, 35% pointed to 2028, 33% to next year, 29% to the second half of this year, and 5% to the first half of this year. In both groups, next year and 2028 were seen as the key stabilization points, and combined, these responses accounted for about 70% in each group.

For the non-capital region housing market, most respondents expected recovery in 2028, but expectations for a recovery as early as next year were also significant. Market experts chose 2028 (46%) and next year (35%) as the likely timing, while certified real estate agents selected 2028 (49%) and next year (31%) in that order.

An overwhelming majority also anticipated an increase in rent prices this year, with 83% of market experts and 85% of certified real estate agents expecting a rise. The expected increase was 0-3% in the greater metropolitan area and 0-1% in non-capital regions.

"Possibility of Eased Polarization in the Housing Market"

The report projected that polarization between the capital and non-capital housing markets would somewhat ease. Some parts of Seoul and the greater metropolitan area are expected to enter a correction phase this year, while non-capital regions are likely to show limited recovery, narrowing the gap to some extent.

Kang Minseok, a researcher at KB Research Institute, commented, "Although the housing market has recently shown signs of calming, regional polarization still persists. Uncertainties remain, such as supply shortages and rising construction costs."

In addition to the easing of polarization, the report cited the following as major issues for this year: changes in demand for apartment sales in Seoul, acceleration of the conversion to monthly rent and changes in the rental market structure, shrinking housing supply and future supply conditions, expansion of the market for renovating old apartments, non-capital housing markets at a turning point, and real estate policies.

President Lee Jae-myung is giving a commemorative speech at the Labor Day ceremony held at the Blue House Guest House on the 1st. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Real Estate Tax and Supply Policies as Key Variables

Policy was identified as the key variable for this year's real estate market. The report predicted that measures such as the implementation of heavier capital gains taxes on owners of multiple homes, potential tax reforms, and the effectiveness of supply measures would likely influence market sentiment.

Although supply-demand imbalances will be difficult to resolve quickly, government policies and higher mortgage rates are expected to act as downward factors, limiting the extent of housing price increases.

Researcher Kang explained, "Expansion of supply in the metropolitan area and real estate tax policies by the government will be key variables shaping the future market trends."

Meanwhile, KB Financial Group, based on the housing price trend survey announced by KB Kookmin Bank since 1986, produces a variety of statistical indicators and real estate market reports. The "KB Real Estate Report" has been published annually since 2018.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.