[Good Morning Market] "KOSPI to Attempt 6,800 Mark on Semiconductor Earnings Momentum"

"Weekly KOSPI Expected Range: 6,500-6,820"
"Earnings Announcements from U.S. AI Companies Are Key Factors"

This week, the KOSPI is expected to attempt to reach the 6,800 level, driven by upward revisions of earnings forecasts centered on semiconductors and the earnings momentum of U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) companies.

On the 4th, Kiwoom Securities stated, "There will be a tug-of-war between profit-taking due to concerns about a short-term peak and additional buying demand as leading stocks strengthen," setting the expected weekly KOSPI range at 6,500 to 6,820 points.

The key inflection point for the market this week will be the U.S. April nonfarm payroll data. Current market expectations are for 73,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, both indicating a slowdown compared to the previous month. Ji-Young Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, explained, "If employment indicators fall short of or are in line with expectations and show a slowdown, this could help stabilize the recently rising 10-year Treasury yields and become a positive factor for investor sentiment toward growth stocks both domestically and internationally."

On the 30th of last month, the index was displayed in the dealing room of Hana Bank headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

In terms of corporate earnings, results from U.S. AI-related companies will be significant. In particular, Palantir’s earnings, to be released on the 4th, are expected to serve as a catalyst determining the recovery potential of software sector stock prices. AMD’s earnings, to be announced on the 5th, are also likely to have a direct impact on domestic semiconductor stocks.

In the Korean stock market, earnings events for leading sectors such as semiconductors, construction, securities, and defense have concluded. Han noted, "As of the end of last month, the KOSPI’s annual operating profit forecast was 850 trillion won, up about 32% from 644 trillion won at the end of March. As a result, the KOSPI enjoyed a stock price surge of over 31% last month," adding, "Thanks to strong performance in IT items such as semiconductors and solid-state drives (SSD), Korea's April exports also exceeded market expectations, increasing by 48.3% year-on-year."

He said, "Due to short-term fatigue following April’s stock price surge and the closure for Children's Day, there may be temporary profit-taking and a brief period of consolidation in the early part of the week. However, considering the possibility of further upward revisions to the KOSPI earnings consensus (market average forecast) and the potential for an agreement between the U.S. and Iran, there are also factors supporting an upward trend. Therefore, it is appropriate to maintain a base scenario in which the KOSPI continues to set new highs this week."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.