Winning Bids Soared but Fewer Works Sold... A "Springtime Illusion" in the Art Market

Q1 Auction Winning Bid Total: KRW 68.5 Billion
Up 162% Year-on-Year, but Number of Works Down 18%
Two Works Over KRW 10 Billion Drive Rebound Indicators

The art market appeared to be recovering. In the first quarter, the total winning bid amount at domestic auctions surged by more than 160% compared to a year earlier. However, the number of works brought to auction actually decreased. This indicates that the revival was not broad-based across the market, but rather driven by a handful of ultra-high-priced works that pushed up the overall figures.

Yoshitomo Nara, Nothing about it (2016). Acrylic on canvas, 194×162 cm. Seoul Auction

According to the "2026 Q1 Art Market Analysis Report" by the Korea Art Authentication Research Center released on May 4, the total winning bid amount at eight major domestic art auction houses in the first quarter of this year was KRW 68,529,640,000. This represents a 161.7% increase from KRW 26,190,210,000 in the same period last year. On the surface, it looks like a sharp rebound from stagnation. However, during the same period, the total number of submitted works dropped from 5,209 to 4,277, a decrease of 17.9%. The number of online auctions also fell from 54 to 32. While the total winning bid amount has grown, both the number of works on the market and available transaction channels have contracted.

It was ultra-high-priced works that created these rebound indicators. At a Seoul Auction event last month, Japanese artist Yoshitomo Nara's 2016 piece "Nothing About It" sold for KRW 15 billion, setting a new record for the highest price ever achieved at a domestic art auction. At the same auction, Yayoi Kusama's 2015 piece "Pumpkin" also sold for KRW 10.45 billion. The combined winning bid amounts of these two works alone totaled KRW 25.45 billion. This means that 37.1% of the total domestic winning bid amount in the first quarter came from just these two pieces.

It is highly unusual to see two works priced in the KRW 10 billion range featured in the same auction. Nonetheless, it is difficult to interpret this as a recovery for the market as a whole. Nara's work started at KRW 14.7 billion and was sold at KRW 15 billion, while Kusama's piece started at KRW 9.5 billion and was won for KRW 10.45 billion. Although ultra-high-priced pieces were traded, rather than their prices being driven up by fierce competition, the transactions more closely resembled the absorption of verified works within a limited scope.

Performance by auction house was also concentrated among the two major players. Seoul Auction’s total winning bid amount in the first quarter was KRW 46,269,850,000, more than five times higher than the same period last year. K Auction also posted KRW 18,324,400,000. Combined, the two companies accounted for approximately KRW 64.6 billion, or about 94% of the total domestic auction winning bid amount. In contrast, the results for mid-sized and smaller auction houses such as My Art Auction, Rise Art, and Khan Auction either remained flat or decreased compared to last year.

Trends in Total Winning Bids and Submitted Works in Domestic Art Auctions.

The rise in winning bid rates cannot be directly interpreted as a market recovery either. According to the report, the average winning bid rate in the first quarter of this year was 52.2%, up 4.0 percentage points from 48.2% in the first quarter of last year. However, this increase occurred in the context of fewer works being submitted overall. Auction houses selected works with a higher likelihood of being sold, while buyers tended to bid on pieces with verified liquidity and provenance.

The average winning bid amount makes this structure even clearer. At Seoul Auction, the average winning bid amount soared from KRW 13.32 million in the first quarter of last year to KRW 79.23 million in the same period this year—about a sixfold increase. K Auction also saw this figure rise from KRW 28.32 million to KRW 43.73 million. Rather than a market expansion due to more works being sold, the increase in the average value was driven by a few high-priced pieces making up a larger share of total sales.

The roles of online and offline auctions also diverged. Of Seoul Auction’s Q1 total winning bids of KRW 46,269,850,000, KRW 45,214,000,000—or about 97.7%—came from offline auctions. For K Auction, KRW 17,336,000,000 out of its total KRW 18,324,400,000—about 94.6%—was generated through offline auctions. High-value works worth tens to hundreds of billions of won are concentrated in major on-site auctions, while online auctions are increasingly focused on mid- to lower-priced works or consigned inventory.

Overseas markets are moving in a similar direction. The report analyzed that the combined Q1 winning bid amounts of the global "big three" auction houses—Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips—reached USD 1.7 billion, up 64.3% year-on-year. However, this global rebound was also led by single-owner collections and the very best blue-chip works. While the Korean market is following a similar trend, one difference is that the domestic market is even more heavily dependent on large auction houses and a handful of ultra-high-priced works by foreign artists.

A representative from the Korea Art Authentication Research Center commented, "Judging by the total winning bid amount, the market in the first quarter may look like it’s experiencing a strong rebound, but considering the decrease in submitted works and the concentration in ultra-high-priced pieces, it is difficult to view this as a recovery for the overall market." The representative added, "A true recovery in market strength would require a revival in mid- to lower-priced works, online auctions, and transactions at smaller auction houses."

They also noted, "As the trend of high-value transactions shifting to private sales outside of public auctions is growing, enhancing the professionalism and price credibility of the secondary market will become a key challenge for the market going forward."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.