From End-of-War Hopes to Earnings Optimism...KOSPI Hits New All-Time High Again

KOSPI Surpasses 6,350 Points...Breaks Pre-War High
SK hynix Surpasses 1.22 Million Won, Hits All-Time High
Gains Accelerate on Expectations for Major Companies' First-Quarter Earnings

On the 21st, when the KOSPI hit its highest level of the year, dealers were working in the dealing room at the Seoul Hana Bank headquarters. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Following expectations for an end to hostilities between the United States and Iran, as well as optimism over improved earnings results for domestic companies, the KOSPI broke its all-time intraday high. Led by semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, analysts predict that KOSPI could rise further, surpassing 7,000 points and even reaching 8,000 points in the future.

KOSPI Surpasses 6,350 Points...Breaks Pre-War Record High

On April 21, KOSPI opened at 6,302.54, up 1.34% from the previous trading day, and continued to climb, reaching 6,340.37 as of 10 a.m., a 1.95% increase. At one point during the session, KOSPI soared to 6,355.39, surpassing its previous all-time intraday high of 6,347.41 recorded on February 27—just before the outbreak of the Iran war—by nearly two months. KOSDAQ opened at 1,186.23, up 0.97%, but reversed course and was trading at 1,173.41, down 0.12% as of 10 a.m. The won-dollar exchange rate opened at 1,472.4 won, down 4.8 won from the previous session, and was trading in the 1,471-won range.

While the New York stock market remained mostly flat overnight as profit-taking hit technology stocks, the Korean market is seen as strong on expectations for the first-quarter earnings season. On April 20 (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.01% from the previous session, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes fell 0.24% and 0.26%, respectively. Uncertainty in the Middle East persists, and analysts point to fatigue from the Nasdaq's previous 13-session winning streak as contributing factors.

Suh Sangyoung, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, commented, "Last week, the U.S. stock market surged, mainly led by large technology stocks on hopes for an end to the war and options-related supply and demand, but today, as profit-taking emerged, the market closed mixed."

In contrast to the U.S. markets, the Korean market is showing clear strength. On this day, KOSPI is particularly strong, led by foreign investors turning to net buyers after three sessions, with semiconductors and secondary battery sectors such as SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and LG Energy Solution in focus. As of 9:38 a.m., foreign investors recorded a net purchase of 444.7 billion won on KOSPI, while institutions net bought 191.7 billion won. Individual investors showed a net selling amount of 626.2 billion won.

As of 9:39 a.m., SK hynix surged 3.77% from the previous session to a record high of 1,211,000 won, and subsequently remained in the 1,220,000-won range. SK hynix is set to announce its first-quarter earnings on April 23. The securities industry expects SK hynix's first-quarter operating profit to reach the 4 trillion won range, surpassing market expectations. Samsung Electronics was also trading at 218,500 won, up 2.86%.

The secondary battery sector is also showing notable strength. As of 9:41 a.m., LG Energy Solution was trading at 466,000 won, up 8.62% from the previous session. Samsung SDI also soared 8.55% to 584,000 won. Samsung SDI announced the previous day that it had signed a multi-year contract to supply next-generation electric vehicle batteries to the German automaker Mercedes-Benz. The industry estimates the contract size to exceed 10 trillion won.

In addition, automakers are also strong, with Hyundai Motor up 0.85%, Kia up 0.38%, and Hyundai Mobis up 1.31%. In contrast, financial stocks such as KB Financial Group (-0.19%) and Shinhan Financial Group (-0.10%), as well as Samsung Biologics (-0.44%), Hanwha Ocean (-0.08%), and Hyundai Rotem (-0.92%) are showing slight declines. Han Ji Young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, assessed, "Despite a wait-and-see sentiment over U.S.-Iran negotiations and the weak U.S. stock market, sector rotation is occurring in KOSPI thanks to expectations for the first-quarter earnings season."

Forecasts Continue for KOSPI to Surpass 7,000 and Even Reach 8,000 Points

The securities industry expects KOSPI to continue breaking new records on the back of improved earnings from major companies, especially semiconductor firms. Semiconductors are also setting new export records. According to the Korea Customs Service, semiconductor exports from April 1 to 20 (provisional customs clearance figures) reached USD 18.3 billion, up 182.5% from the same period last year—a record high for any April 1–20 period.

There are even forecasts that KOSPI could climb to 8,000 points within a year. Global investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price target for KOSPI from 7,000 to 8,000 in a report released the previous day. Timothy Moe, Chief Asia-Pacific Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, raised this year's KOSPI earnings growth forecast from 130% to 220% and set the index ceiling at 8,000.

The report projected that Korea's semiconductor and industrial fundamentals will continue to improve this year. In particular, demand for semiconductors related to artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to be a key driver of earnings improvement. The report also predicted that the overall market—including companies other than Samsung Electronics and SK hynix—would see profit growth of up to 48%. Even with improved earnings, KOSPI's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is currently only around 7.5 times, much lower than the historical high average of 10 times.

Earlier, Nomura Securities also projected that, buoyed by semiconductor profits, KOSPI could reach 8,000 points. Among domestic securities firms, Hana Securities (7,870), KB Securities (7,500), and Hyundai Motor Securities (7,500) have all forecast a strong KOSPI. Kim Dongwon, Head of Research at KB Securities, emphasized, "The momentum in semiconductor earnings will trigger a rerating of the entire Korean stock market," adding, "Government measures to vitalize the capital market, such as amendments to the Commercial Act and improvements in corporate governance, will also have a positive impact."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.