Park Wonseok and Lee Taekyu: "Whether Han Donghoon Can Overwhelm the People Power Party Candidate Early On Is Key" [Current Affairs Show]

Park Wonseok: "If Ha Jungwoo Runs, It Will Be a Tough Election"
Lee Taekyu: "High Interest Does Not Necessarily Mean High Support"

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jong-seop's Current Affairs Show' (Mon-Fri, 4-5pm)

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop ■ Director: PD Park Sumin

■ Guests: Former Justice Party lawmaker Park Wonseok, former People Power Party lawmaker Lee Taekyu (April 13)

※ Please be sure to specify 'So Jong-seop's Current Affairs Show' when citing content from this article.

So Jongseop: There are 50 days left until the local elections. How would you comprehensively assess the current situation?

Lee Taekyu: In Korea, elections can be unpredictable even until the last minute, but I feel we are facing a situation where a crushing defeat for the People Power Party is expected. If the election were held tomorrow, it is possible that they would only win in North Gyeongsang Province and lose everywhere else. Many people are concerned about this. In every aspect—approval ratings for the president, the party support, and voters' perspectives on this local election—the People Power Party is currently at an absolute disadvantage.

In this situation, I really cannot understand why the party leader is leisurely in the United States. The party leader has the responsibility to propose and implement countermeasures to overcome this difficult period, but instead, he is away in the U.S., which I think is a symbolic reflection of the extremely unfavorable public opinion indicators. Together with Lee Junghyun, they showed great incompetence during the nomination process, and now it has reached the point of irresponsibility. It's truly disappointing.

Jang Donghyeok: Beyond Incompetence to Irresponsibility, It's Regrettable

Park Wonseok: If the election were held tomorrow, it would be 15 to 1. This is not just my subjective prediction—almost all experts are making similar forecasts. The key issue for the People Power Party is whether this trend can be reversed, but it seems unlikely, and there seems to be little will to do so. The nomination process is not complete, and yet, for reasons that are hard to understand, the party leader who is responsible for managing the election has gone to the U.S. for unclear reasons. It feels like Chairman Jang Donghyeok has no intention of fighting this election and has already started preparing for what comes after. If the situation remains the same in 50 days, the election’s outcome is practically a foregone conclusion.

So Jongseop: In this context, former People Power Party leader Han Donghoon's decision to live in Busan is effectively a declaration that he will run in Buk-gap, Busan.

Han Donghoon, former leader of the People Power Party, is speaking during his visit to Gyeongdong Market in Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul on March 22. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Lee Taekyu: The fact that he met with former lawmaker Seo Byungsoo, the current chairman of the Buk-gap party association, requested cooperation, and secured a declaration of support is, in effect, an official announcement of his candidacy. If we look only at the opinion polls, it will be a very tough election and by no means an easy win. Voter interest in former leader Han Donghoon is high, but that does not necessarily translate to support, as shown by previous surveys. Ultimately, the most likely scenario is a three-way race among the People Power Party candidate, the Democratic Party candidate, and former leader Han Donghoon. Han’s support base is primarily among conservatives; he has not established a separate, independent third domain apart from the conservatives.

Can Han Donghoon Overwhelm the People Power Party Candidate Early On? That's Critical

In that scenario, while the People Power Party candidate is yet to be determined, the real question is whether Han can truly overwhelm that candidate. Can he dominate enough to win in a three-way race? If not, he must at least secure a decisive lead, forcing the opposition to consolidate candidacies. The key challenge will be whether he can create such a gap that even the People Power Party would have no choice but to withdraw. This is a major task ahead.

Ha Jungwoo, Chief of AI Future Planning at the Presidential Office, is not so irreplaceable that only he can fill the role. The suggestion that 'President Lee Jaemyung should not hand over the party' felt more like a staged promise to increase his value. Since the party has officially mentioned him, some discussions must have already taken place. If Ha Jungwoo does become a candidate, he is unlikely to lead with slogans like 'let's judge the rebellion.' He would talk about the future. In that case, an entirely different dynamic will emerge, and in my view, Han Donghoon's agenda of conservative reconstruction or innovation would no longer be the main issue. He would need to create a new rationale and vision that surpasses those topics.

He must have a clear rationale and vision for facing the People Power Party candidate. If the Democratic Party candidate is not a traditional type, he must also develop a new rationale and vision to surpass that opponent. The real issue is how well he can combine these two elements. However, the biggest question is whether he can decisively defeat the People Power Party candidate in the early phase. If he cannot do so, he may face various difficulties as the campaign progresses.

Ha Jung-woo, the Chief of AI Future Planning at the Presidential Office, is speaking at the Cabinet Meeting held on September 9 last year at the Yongsan Presidential Office in Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News

Park Wonseok: I think his candidacy is 100% certain. While it’s not from Han Donghoon himself, I spoke with someone close to him, and the decision has been made for some time. There are two key points: first is the structure of the race; second is whether the conservative candidates can consolidate. I believe Han Donghoon could overtake the People Power Party candidate in a three-way race, but it's not easy for him to win outright. Unlike Daegu, the Democratic Party’s support in Busan is in the low 40% range, and Buk-gu is not particularly unfriendly territory for the conservatives.

However, lawmaker Jeon Jae-soo has managed this constituency for over 20 years.

Jeon Jae-soo's organization remains solid. The Democratic Party is likely to inherit that presence. In this context, it’s questionable whether Han can generate enough support in a short time to win even in a three-way race. I also think the initial support level is very important, and this will depend on whom the People Power Party nominates. Some say that Minister Park Minshik is unpopular locally and, given his style, might agree to consolidate candidacies with Han Donghoon. That is why there is talk among party leaders about fielding a candidate who would never agree to consolidation. If someone like Supreme Council member Kim Minsoo is nominated, it could actually benefit Han Donghoon.

Han Donghoon's Style Is Actually More Suited to the Seoul Metropolitan Area

From Han’s perspective, the most challenging People Power Party candidate is Park Minshik, who served two terms as a lawmaker there and still has considerable clout. Whether consolidation is possible is the key issue, which makes this a high-risk scenario. But if politicians shy away from risk, there are no opportunities. Had he included the metropolitan area in his options and conducted a broader review, he might not have rushed to decide on Busan after Daegu fell through. I found that puzzling, since areas like Pyeongtaek or Hanam in the metropolitan area could be competitive. To pursue big politics, you need a strong local base, so perhaps he was ambitious in seeking a bigger base in Busan. Still, Han Donghoon's style seems better suited to the Seoul metropolitan area.

Taking a Stand for Conservative Reconstruction Should Be Recognized

Lee Taekyu: To put it positively, Yeongnam is the stronghold of conservatives. He can be credited for raising the flag of conservative reconstruction and entering a direct contest there. However, there remains a gap between public interest in Han and actual votes at the polls. If his opponent is not a typical politician but rather Ha Jungwoo, there is a freshness to the race. If Ha Jungwoo becomes the candidate, would issues like conservative reconstruction and innovation really resonate? I don't think so.

In reality, Han has in the past engaged with fan clubs and held events, but he has never presented a concrete agenda or vision for conservative reconstruction—only slogans. If he runs on political slogans alone, he may find it difficult to gain traction at the grassroots level.

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So Jongseop: If Ha Jungwoo runs, it seems former leader Han will have difficulty shaping the race.

Park Wonseok: It won’t be easy. If Ha Jungwoo runs for the Democratic Party, it will be a very tough election for Han. The narrative about conservative reconstruction or Busan producing a great new leader may not gain traction at all. The Democratic Party will frame the race as past vs. future. Figures like Park Hyungjun from the People Power Party will be seen as representing Busan’s past, while Jeon Jae-soo and Ha Jungwoo will be the future, with Ha Jungwoo as the key figure. In fact, Ha Jungwoo is the one with a future-oriented image; Jeon Jae-soo, having been in politics a long time, does not have that image.

Another point to watch is how the People Power Party in Busan will respond. Seo Byungsoo has stated his position, but what about the other lawmakers in Busan? Their stance will be very important. Political elders in Busan, such as Kim Hyungoh, Chung Ui-hwa, and Kim Mooseong, have viewed Jang Donghyeok's leadership and the current direction of the People Power Party with considerable concern. They are likely to welcome Han Donghoon's candidacy. Since Han has effectively declared his candidacy, he will probably begin meeting with these elders quickly. As things stand, there is a strong sense of crisis in Busan that the People Power Party may be unable to compete. Lawmakers, district mayoral candidates, and even regional assembly candidates may feel it is better to contest the election with Han Donghoon than with Jang Donghyeok. That could prove to be a crucial point.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.