[Weekend Money] Is Bitcoin Establishing a Bottom? Where Are the Support Levels?

Bitcoin, which initially rose at the outset of the U.S.-Iran war, has retraced its gains as the conflict has dragged on. The market currently views $66,000 as a short-term inflection point that will determine Bitcoin's direction.

According to Shinhan Investment Corp. on April 11, after the escalation of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin climbed to $76,000 by mid-March as a combination of reduced policy uncertainty, renewed inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the rebuilding of derivative positions came together.

However, following the release of the Clarity Act draft on March 24, the overall policy momentum for digital assets dissipated, and Bitcoin began to track macroeconomic variables related to the war. Since mid-March, Bitcoin has corrected in a manner more akin to risk assets like equities, rather than following the path of traditional safe-haven assets, effectively erasing its early-month gains.

Sungje Park, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., commented, "During the mid-March rally when Bitcoin hit $76,000, some in the market questioned whether Bitcoin was functioning as a safe-haven asset replacing gold during wartime. However, considering the overall trend in March, this was an overinterpretation." He added, "The strong rebound in early March was driven by spot ETF inflows, policy expectations, and the rebuilding of derivative positions. As the war dragged on and policy momentum for digital assets faded, Bitcoin became linked to the broader weakness among major global assets."

Bitcoin is currently retesting the lower end of its trading range between $66,000 and $73,000. Park identified the first support level at $66,000 and the second support at $60,000. He explained, "The first support is set at $66,000, a level where the price has repeatedly reacted recently, and the second support is $60,000, which marks the lower end of a demand cluster based on the URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution)." He further noted, "$54,000 represents the Realized Price, which is the on-chain average acquisition cost for the entire market, and should be considered a structural support level from a medium- to long-term perspective."

There is also a view that it is still too early to conclude that the current zone represents a solid bottoming phase. Park stated, "Although there has been a recent inflow of buying momentum, directional signals in the derivatives market remain mixed, and it is difficult to say that short-term holders' profits and losses have stabilized." He continued, "As the market seeks confirmation of a bottom, it is important to keep open the possibility of a further decline toward the $60,000 area if the $66,000 level is breached in the short term. A break below $60,000 could present an opportunity for more aggressive staggered buying."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.