"China Over the United States"... Southeast Asian Public Opinion Turns Amid Trump Fatigue

Survey by Singapore Institute
China Preferred Over U.S. by 52% in Choice Between Two Powers
Half of Experts Cite "Trump as Biggest Source of Instability"

Amid growing concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's diplomatic risks, public opinion in Southeast Asia appears to be shifting back toward China. The strategic pressure on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has maintained a balance between the United States and China, is also intensifying.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are leaving the meeting room after their U.S.-China summit last October at Naraemaru inside the 5th Air Mobility Wing of the Busan Air Force Base. Photo by Yonhap News

According to Yonhap News on April 8, citing a report from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a survey of policy makers and experts from ASEAN member states showed that 52% would choose China over the United States if forced to pick between the two, compared to 48% who would opt for the United States. This is the second time since 2024 that China has overtaken the United States in such a preference.

Previously, in 2024, China (50.5%) surpassed the United States (49.5%) for the first time, while last year the United States (52.3%) regained the lead over China (47.7%). However, in this latest survey, China once again outpaced the United States.

There were clear differences by country. China was strongly preferred in Indonesia (80.1%), Malaysia (68%), and Singapore (66.3%), whereas the Philippines (76.8%), Myanmar (61.4%), and Cambodia (61%) showed a greater preference for the United States.

Experts identified President Trump as the greatest geopolitical risk in Southeast Asia. 51.9% of respondents cited his leadership as the most significant source of instability, followed by global fraud and scams (51.4%), tensions in the South China Sea (48.2%), and the Thailand–Cambodia border dispute (40.5%).

China was considered the most influential country in both political and economic spheres. When asked which country is the most influential economic power in Southeast Asia, 55.9% chose China, and China also ranked first in the political and strategic fields.

However, there was also notable caution. Respondents pointed to "interference in domestic affairs" (30.3%) as the factor most negatively affecting China's image—an even higher rate than China's assertive actions on the Mekong River and the South China Sea (28%). To improve relations with Southeast Asian countries, China was advised to seek peaceful resolution of territorial and maritime disputes (35.1%), respect sovereignty (25.5%), and expand mutually beneficial trade (20.1%).

Meanwhile, Japan was ranked as the most trusted partner in Southeast Asia, with 65.6%. The European Union followed at 55.9%, the United States at 44%, and China at 39.8%.

This survey was conducted from January 5 to February 20 among 2,008 participants from government, academia, business, media, and civil society sectors of ASEAN member states.

The report analyzed, "While Southeast Asian countries continue to maintain a policy of balancing between the United States and China, growing anxiety about both sides is increasing the pressure to make a strategic choice."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.