[Good Morning Stock Market] "Iran War at a Critical Juncture... Best to Respond After Confirming Negotiation Results"

“KOSPI Expected at 5,050–5,650 Points This Week”

“Key Variables: War, U.S. CPI, Samsung Electronics’ Earnings”

With the deadline for negotiations with Iran, as announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, approaching, on April 6, the securities market advised that rather than selling stocks early in the week to increase cash holdings, investors should take a wait-and-see approach, check the results on the negotiation deadline, and then adjust their strategies accordingly.

On this day, Kiwoom Securities stated, "In the process of experiencing unprecedented stock price volatility due to the war between the U.S. and Iran, market participants' fatigue has not been easily alleviated," and forecasted the KOSPI's expected weekly range to be between 5,050 and 5,650 points.

A live broadcast of President Trump's speech is playing in the dealing room of Hana Bank's headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jo Yongjun

Iran Negotiation D-Day Approaches... "Wait-and-See Over Hasty Selling"

Earlier, on April 5 (local time), according to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), President Trump postponed the negotiation deadline with Iran by one day from the originally stated April 6 to April 7, and declared that if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened, the U.S. will launch a comprehensive attack on Iran's infrastructure facilities. Previously, the Trump Administration has repeatedly issued ultimatums and declared suspensions of attacks against Iran.

Ji-young Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, commented on this week’s investment strategy for the domestic stock market, saying, "The D-DAY set by President Trump as he postponed the attack on Iran's power plants will serve as a catalyst for easing war fatigue depending on whether a ceasefire agreement is reached," and advised, "Rather than responding by selling stocks and increasing cash holdings from Monday, it is more appropriate to take a wait-and-see stance, check the outcome on D-DAY, and then revise your strategy."

Key variables cited were: ▲ Whether the war will further escalate ▲ Changes in market interest rates after the U.S. March Consumer Price Index (CPI) ▲ Minutes from the March U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and comments from major Federal Reserve officials ▲ The direction of foreign investor flows following Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings announcement.

Samsung Electronics’ Earnings at a Crossroads... Foreign Flow Direction to Be Determined

The researcher said, "At this point, what matters more than U.S. employment indicators is the inflation index, which can directly and quickly confirm the impact of surging oil prices caused by the war," adding, "In this respect, the U.S. March CPI, scheduled for later this week, will exert significant influence on the stock market direction into next week."

He continued, "For market-specific factors, the key event is Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings for the first quarter of this year," and added, "Recently, Samsung Electronics has plunged about 15% from its peak, creating noise around the 'memory supercycle peak-out.' This preliminary earnings announcement will be a turning point to reconcile divergent opinions."

He further explained, "Looking at some domestic and foreign securities firms' operating profit forecasts, it is reasonable to expect that Samsung Electronics' strong first-quarter results are already anticipated," adding, "While it is important to see whether the first-quarter results exceed the consensus (market average forecast), it will also be crucial to monitor whether the memory supercycle outlook is reinforced after the announcement and whether analysts further raise their annual operating profit consensus."

Meanwhile, on April 3 (local time), the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was closed in observance of Good Friday. Good Friday is the Friday before Easter, commemorated as the day Jesus was crucified, and is a holiday in most Christian countries. On April 2, when President Trump said the war with Iran would continue for another two to three weeks, the three major U.S. stock indices ended with mixed results.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.