Houthi Rebels Join Iran War...Will the Red Sea Be Blocked This Time? [US-Iran War]

Houthis Join the Conflict with Airstrikes on Israel on the 28th

Saudi Arabia, Sharing a Border, May Also Enter the War

Red Sea Blockade Could Trigger Oil Price Surge and Disrupt Global Shipping

Some Analysts See Iran Gaining Negotiating Leverage

The capital of Yemen, Sana'a, is visible on Google Maps. The Houthi rebels' stronghold is located in Sana'a and other areas in northwest Yemen.

The Houthi rebels, a pro-Iranian armed faction in Yemen, have launched attacks on Israel, signaling an expansion of the Iran war into the Red Sea region. With the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea—a vital gateway to the Suez Canal—coming under threat, there is growing pressure on both international oil prices and maritime logistics costs.

According to Bloomberg on the 29th (local time), the Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles toward Israel the previous day in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran also attacked aluminum production facilities in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as U.S. military bases in Saudi Arabia.

The Houthi missile launch took place on the 28th, just one day after the U.S. Central Command announced that the assault amphibious ship USS Tripoli (LHA-7), carrying a 3,500-strong Marine Expeditionary Unit and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, had arrived in Middle Eastern waters on the 27th. This move is seen as a warning against the possibility of the Trump administration deploying ground forces in Iran.

With the Houthi rebels entering the conflict, the dynamics of the Iran war are expected to become more complex. The Houthis are one of the resistance groups supported by Iran, with strongholds in Sana, the capital of Yemen, as well as on the Red Sea coast and other parts of northwestern Yemen. Yemen shares a border with Saudi Arabia, with the Red Sea to the west and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at its southern tip. This means the Houthis are capable of directly attacking U.S. military bases and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia with drones and other means, and they can also control the critical shipping lane in the Red Sea.

While the Houthis have not explicitly declared that they will target oil tankers and other ships passing through the southern Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, they have effectively blocked the passage of most Western vessels since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict in 2023.

If they attack commercial ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait this time as well, global maritime logistics could face severe disruption. Ships may be unable to enter the Suez Canal, and energy transport via alternative routes such as Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port—bypassing the Strait of Hormuz—would also be affected.

The international consulting firm Eurasia Group stated in a report to clients that, for now, it is unlikely the Houthis will target oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, given that they agreed to a truce with Saudi Arabia in 2022. However, the possibility of renewed military tensions remains high at any time.

Some observers believe the Houthis’ intervention serves as a bargaining chip in negotiations. Mehran Kamrava, director of the Arab Center for Policy Studies, analyzed, "Iran is deeply concerned that the U.S. or Israel will launch attacks within the next few months." He added that while Iran desperately wants negotiations with the U.S., it also wants those talks to proceed on its own terms.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Director Kamrava said, "Over the past few weeks, Iran has not hesitated to cross several red lines. It has attacked oil and energy facilities, and its strike accuracy in the Middle East is increasing. Because it has inflicted significant damage to Saudi Arabia's military bases, this could serve as another bargaining card in negotiations."

The challenges facing the Trump administration are also expected to deepen. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing senior White House officials, reported that President Donald Trump has told his aides he wants to avoid an "endless war" and end the conflict through negotiations, emphasizing the publicly stated war duration of four to six weeks. However, the senior official noted that this timeline for ending the war "seems unstable."

The WSJ also reported that President Trump, by sending a ceasefire proposal to Iran through mediators such as Pakistan, is demonstrating an urgent desire to bring the Iran war to a close, but that the likelihood of substantial negotiations taking place remains uncertain.

Jonathan Panikoff, former U.S. National Intelligence Deputy Director for the Middle East, stated, "From President Trump's perspective, options to end the war are lacking on all sides," adding, "One of the difficulties lies in the lack of clarity about what a satisfactory outcome would look like."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.