[New York Stock Exchange] Market Weighs Ceasefire... Closes After Giving Up Some Gains

All Three Major Indexes Rise Over 1% Intraday
U.S. Pushes for High-Level Talks With Iran Through a Mediator
Gains Trimmed Mid-Session on Iran's Hardline Stance
International Oil Prices End Down More Than 2%

New York Stock Exchange. Photo by Yoonju Hwang

After it was confirmed that Iran had received 15 ceasefire conditions from the United States, and with reports that the U.S. is seeking to hold high-level talks with Iran, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on March 25 (local time).

On this day at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 46,429.49, up 305.43 points (0.66%) from the previous trading day. The S&P 500, which focuses on large-cap stocks, rose 35.53 points (0.54%) to 6,591.90, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 167.931 points (0.77%) to close at 21,929.825.

The New York stock market rebounded, reflecting optimism that the U.S. and Iran could reach a ceasefire agreement. Citing Iranian officials, the Associated Press reported that the Iranian government had received a 15-point peace proposal from the United States aimed at ending the conflict.

CNN, quoting senior U.S. government officials, reported that the U.S. is seeking to hold high-level talks with Iran through an intermediary country this weekend. It is believed that Vice President J.D. Vance, who is favored by the Iranian side, will participate in the negotiations. However, these officials noted that the venue, schedule, and participants are all subject to change.

The Iranian military maintained a hardline stance, refusing a ceasefire and asserting its control over international oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the New York stock market gave back some of its gains, but expectations for a ceasefire remained intact.

International oil prices also closed down by more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 2.2% from the previous session to settle at $90.32 per barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, also dropped 2.2% to $90.32 per barrel.

Refining stocks such as ExxonMobil (-1.21%) and Chevron (-0.71%) ended lower. In contrast, Occidental Petroleum rose 0.98%, Diamondback Energy fell 0.47%, and APA gained 1.62%, showing a mixed trend.

The JPMorgan trading desk noted in a report, "Questions remain as to who in Iran can limit military activity and what can satisfy Israeli interests, but the market appears to be hoping for a rebound at current levels." The report also analyzed, "It is unclear whether Iran will withdraw its existing demands for security guarantees against future aggression or for compensation for losses incurred during the current conflict."

Micron Technology fell 3.64% from the previous session. Despite having announced strong earnings last week, concerns about the scale of capital expenditures and overall margins led the stock to decline for five consecutive trading days. According to CNBC, it has dropped more than 10% just this week; however, its share price has surged more than 300% over the past year, maintaining an impressive uptrend.

Most technology stocks closed higher. Nvidia gained 1.90%, Apple 0.67%, Amazon 2.15%, and Meta 0.69%. On the other hand, Microsoft (MS) fell 0.64% and Alphabet declined 0.14%.

Strategists at Bespoke Investment Group commented, "At this point, there is no way to know the precise facts of the negotiations, so sharp changes can be expected as talks progress," adding, "Although Iran still holds the upper hand, the circumstances are very unfavorable for Iran."

Some analysts also argue that the resilience of the stock market is more important than geopolitical factors. Mark Hackett of Nationwide noted, "There has not yet been a significant downturn, suggesting that individual investors continue to buy even in a bearish market," and explained, "If tensions start to ease, institutional investors may need to move quickly out of a wait-and-see mode, which could trigger a strong rebound."

Paul Stanley of Bay Wealth Management stated, "The market could be highly volatile in the coming weeks until the earnings season starts in mid-April," and added, "Once earnings season begins, it may help the market refocus on fundamentals, the economy, and artificial intelligence (AI)."

Meanwhile, according to Investing.com, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed at 4.335%, down 5.9 basis points (1bp = 0.01 percentage point) from the previous session. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 3.8 basis points to end at 4.902%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.