[Good Morning Market] Korean Stocks Expected to Rise on One-Month U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Talks

Despite Increased Volatility in U.S. Markets,
Lower Oil Prices and Strong KOSPI 200 Overnight Futures Provide Support

Although the U.S. stock market showed weakness, the Korean stock market is expected to rise, supported by factors such as oil price corrections stemming from one-month ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran.

On the 24th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,124.06, down 84.41 points (0.18%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 index fell by 24.63 points (0.37%) to 6,556.37, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended trading at 21,761.89, a decrease of 184.87 points (0.84%).

Despite the U.S. announcement of a five-day halt to attacks, all three major New York stock indices closed lower. This was due to ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, as well as concerns over possible ground troop deployment following news that the U.S. Department of Defense would dispatch the 82nd Airborne Division.

However, after the market closed, sentiment shifted with reports that the United States had proposed a one-month ceasefire by presenting 15 terms. These terms include dismantling nuclear capabilities, a commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons, and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. If Iran accepts these conditions, it is known that it would receive benefits such as the complete lifting of international sanctions and support for the development of a civilian nuclear program. After rising above $94 during intraday trading, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged to the $88 range following the close. Nasdaq futures also climbed nearly 1% in after-hours trading.

On the 24th, amid expectations for war negotiations between the United States and Iran and a rebound close in the New York stock market, the won/dollar exchange rate also started lower, as employees were working in the dealing room at the Seoul Hana Bank headquarters. On this day, the KOSPI index rose 232.45 points (4.30%) from the previous trading day to 5,638.20, the KOSDAQ increased 37.27 points (3.40%) to 1,134.16, and the won/dollar exchange rate began trading down 26.4 won at 1,490.9 won. March 24, 2026 Photo by Cho Yongjun

Despite the increased intraday volatility in the U.S. stock market, upside factors such as lower oil prices due to ceasefire talks and a 1.2% gain in the KOSPI 200 overnight futures are expected to outweigh, leading the Korean stock market higher. The previous day, the domestic market surged over 4% at the open on expectations of U.S.-Iran negotiations, then turned lower during the session, but closed up more than 2% as bargain hunting focused on leading sectors like semiconductors emerged.

Regarding the heightened daily volatility in the Korean stock market, experts explained that market participants are engaged in a short-term battle over share price direction. Han Ji-Young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "There is a clash between those who believe the drop has been excessive and see this as a buying opportunity, and those who think unresolved negative factors mean it is time to sell on rebounds." She added, "While this creates a technically ambiguous period for betting on market direction, from a fundamental perspective, the medium-term outlook for gains remains valid."

Han further noted, "According to Bloomberg, the consensus target for the KOSPI over the next 12 months, which averages forecasts from securities firms, is currently in the 7,200 range." She emphasized, "This consensus is calculated by aggregating the average target prices for individual stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix from both domestic and foreign securities firms. It is noteworthy that not only domestic but also overseas firms maintain a positive view due to factors such as earnings momentum and governance improvement policies." She continued, "This suggests that, even in the current environment where aftershocks from the war are increasing volatility, it is appropriate to keep a neutral or higher weighting in Korean equities." When choosing sectors, she also pointed out the importance of focusing on semiconductors, defense, shipbuilding, consumer staples, steel, healthcare, and retail distribution, all of which have solid first-quarter earnings prospects this year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.