[Good Morning Market] Kospi Expected to Rise on Optimism Over Strait of Hormuz Reopening

On March 17, the KOSPI is expected to open higher, buoyed by optimism over the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In the previous session on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,946.41, up 387.94 points (0.83%) from the previous close. The S&P 500 Index rose 67.19 points (1.01%) to 6,699.38, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index finished at 22,374.178, up 268.82 points (1.22%).

Traders are working at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, USA. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

The New York stock market rebounded on the back of bargain hunting following a series of corrections, expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting decline in oil prices, momentum from NVIDIA's GTC event, and Meta's announcement to expand its artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

International oil prices weakened as reports emerged that vessels from several countries—including India, Turkey, Pakistan, and Greece—had passed through the Strait of Hormuz. In the market, there is growing attention to the shift in Iran’s strategy from a hardline full blockade of the strait to selective restrictions, as well as the fact that the United States is also not seeking a prolonged war. As a result, analysts say that the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has already been largely priced into the market, is unlikely to become a further drag on stocks.

Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, is speaking at the 'GTC 2026' keynote held on the 16th (local time) at the SAP Center in San Jose, California, USA. Photo by Getty Images Yonhap News

Additionally, at NVIDIA's GTC event, CEO Jensen Huang offered an optimistic outlook on demand for next-generation AI chips, Blackwell and the Vera Rubin architecture, easing concerns about a slowdown in AI demand and creating a favorable environment for the semiconductor sector. He projected that the AI infrastructure market would reach about 500 billion dollars in 2026 and surpass 1 trillion dollars in 2027.

Accordingly, there is analysis suggesting that the domestic stock market is likely to continue its rebound. The partial easing of uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the decline in international oil prices, the rebound in the U.S. stock market, and the overnight rise in the KOSPI 200 futures are all contributing to improved investor sentiment.

Of course, instability in the Middle East and concerns over the U.S. private debt market remain as variables, making it unlikely for market sentiment to fully reverse in the short term. However, it is seen as a positive sign that, after being repeatedly exposed to the same negative factors throughout March, the downside rigidity of leading stocks such as semiconductors is gradually strengthening.

Currently, discussions about exit strategies are taking place regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict, and international oil prices are facing resistance near 100 dollars per barrel. In addition, events such as Micron’s earnings announcement are scheduled, providing further opportunities to assess the global semiconductor industry, which may once again highlight the leadership of domestic semiconductor stocks.

Ji-Young Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, commented, "While high volatility may persist for some time, it is highly likely that market volatility will gradually subside as time goes on. By sector, it is possible to approach transportation, securities, and domestic demand-related stocks—which have seen significant declines due to the war—from a bargain-hunting perspective, or to pursue short-term trading focusing on war-beneficiary stocks such as shipping and refining."

However, he added, "Trading focused on short-term price movements can lead to timing errors, so at this point, a strategy of maintaining a portfolio centered on existing leading stocks, including semiconductors, is more effective."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.