[Good Morning Market] "Powell's Remarks and Micron's Earnings Amid Middle East Turmoil... KOSPI Faces Uncertainty"

KOSPI Expected to Range Between 5,150 and 5,700 This Week
Kharg Island Bombing Heightens Oil Price Volatility
Powell's Assessment of Inflation Also a Key Variable

This week, the Korean stock market is expected to experience volatility due to factors such as the US-Iran war, remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and Micron's earnings.

On the 13th, affected by the rising international oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the domestic stock market opened lower. Oil price information is displayed in the dealing room at the Seoul Hana Bank headquarters. March 13, 2026. Photo by Jo Yongjoon

On the 16th, Kiwoom Securities forecasted the weekly KOSPI range to be between 5,150 and 5,700 points.

This week, the Middle East war and the direction of oil prices are expected to remain the biggest variables for the market. Notably, news of the US bombing Iran's Kharg Island has heightened oil price volatility. The oil facilities on this island account for 90% of Iran’s oil exports.

On March 13 (local time), US President Donald Trump announced after the market closed that he had bombed Kharg Island, which is home to Iran’s key military facilities. Although he stated that the oil facilities were not targeted, the fact of the bombing itself could cause shipping companies and insurers to refuse entry, which may drive oil prices higher.

The press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell following this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is also a variable. As the influence of the FOMC on the stock market has somewhat diminished due to the Middle East war, attention should be paid to Chairman Powell’s remarks rather than the FOMC’s rate freeze decision or changes to the dot plot.

Chairman Powell is likely to assess the recent surge in oil prices as temporary inflation. However, it is also necessary to be prepared for a scenario in which, based on the inflation experience of 2022, he evaluates it as structural inflation. In this case, upward pressure on market interest rates may increase, acting as a constraint on the stock market.

Additionally, how Chairman Powell views the private credit market is another key point. With concerns about insolvency in the private credit market growing due to a series of redemption suspensions by asset management companies, it is important to see how much caution the Fed is exercising.

In addition to these macroeconomic factors, Nvidia’s GTC event and Micron’s earnings are also expected to influence the stock market. The GTC event is likely to draw attention to the detailed mass production schedule of the graphics processing unit (GPU) Vera Rubin. Depending on the timing of mass production, the visibility of revenue recognition for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix’s High Bandwidth Memory 4 (HBM4) could change.

Micron’s earnings have a more direct impact on domestic semiconductor-related stocks. Since the beginning of this year, memory prices have soared, and expectations that Micron will report strong results this quarter have already been reflected in stock prices. For semiconductor stocks to break through previous highs, it is crucial whether Micron delivers an earnings surprise, and factors such as the duration of supply bottlenecks and the impact of geopolitical risks on the memory industry, which can be confirmed during the conference call, are expected to determine investor sentiment.

Meanwhile, on March 13 (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 index closed at 6,632.19, down 0.61% from the previous session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26% to 46,558.47, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished at 22,105.36, down 0.93%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.