The Strait of Hormuz Shakes the Global Economy... Why a Blockade Is So Easy [Sisasyo]

Large Oil Tankers Can Barely Pass
Alternative Routes Handle Only a Fraction of the Volume

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'Soh Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'

■ Host: Soh Jongseop, Political Specialist

■ Director: PD Ma Yena

■ Guest: Reporter Lee Hyunwoo

Tensions are rising in the international community as Iran has threatened to lay naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz and blow up oil tankers passing through. This declaration alone has stranded hundreds of oil tankers in front of the strait, and international oil prices continue to surge sharply.

A Strait So Narrow That Only Large Oil Tankers Can Barely Pass... 47 Years of Blockade Preparation

Reuters and Yonhap News

On the map, the narrowest part of the Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 kilometers wide. However, the real issue is the water depth. The areas with sufficient depth are extremely limited, so the actual passage width available for large oil tankers is only 3 kilometers per direction, totaling 6 kilometers for both directions. This is just wide enough for a single very large oil tanker to barely pass in one direction.

Approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil are transported through this strait every day. About 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil passes through this single narrow strait. Because the navigable area is so narrow, analysts believe that laying just a few dozen mines could block both directions of passage.

Iran is known to regard the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as its final diplomatic card, and it has systematically prepared for this over the past 47 years. Even in emergency situations—such as the death of the supreme leader or the collapse of most of the leadership—local commanders have been trained and operational plans have been established so they can immediately implement a blockade based on their own judgment.

In fact, it is believed that these preemptive trainings were the reason for the swift blockade response, even when the supreme leader died and most of the leadership was absent during this crisis. In addition, military assets such as vessels for laying mines, drone forces, and missile launchers had been separately stockpiled, so the US military did not detect the operation at first and was slow to respond.

The US military announced that it had sunk 16 Iranian vessels that attempted to lay naval mines. However, reports indicate that Iran had been preparing to lay mines using small boats for several days prior, raising concerns that even with US Navy escorts for every oil tanker, perfect defense is difficult. The market’s anxiety is further heightened by the fact that during the Iran-Iraq War in 1987, a Kuwaiti oil tanker under US escort was struck and exploded after hitting a mine.

Alternative Routes Exist, But Only 10% of Hormuz Oil Transport Volume

Reuters Yonhap News

The main alternative being discussed in response to the Strait of Hormuz blockade is Saudi Arabia's 'Petro Line.' This pipeline runs across Saudi Arabia from east to west to the Red Sea, and some oil-producing countries are seeking alternative exports through it. Some oil tankers are reportedly already using alternative routes.

However, the handling capacity of this port is only 2 to 2.5 million barrels per day—just one-tenth of the 20 million barrels that pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day. Even if efforts are maximized, daily capacity is limited to 5 million barrels, or one-quarter of the total. Unlike Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq are not even connected to the Petro Line or other pipelines, so their export routes are virtually completely blocked.

In Iraq's case, oil and gas storage facilities have reached full capacity, leading to the unprecedented suspension of some production lines. In 2021, when a large cargo ship ran aground and blocked the Suez Canal, there was at least the possibility of rerouting around the southern tip of Africa. In the case of the Strait of Hormuz, however, using alternative routes is not so easy.

Countries With Low Reserves Face Emergencies... Pakistan Implements Four-Day Workweek

AP Yonhap News

Major advanced countries such as South Korea and Japan typically hold strategic oil reserves sufficient for 100 to 200 days, so they are relatively well-positioned to cope with short-term shocks. Oil-producing countries such as the United States and China can rely on domestic production, so the impact is even more limited for them.

In contrast, developing countries, especially non-oil-producing nations in Southeast Asia, are facing a much more severe situation. India, for example, is cited as the major oil-consuming country with the lowest reserves, currently holding reserves covering only 25 days of total consumption. The United States’ exceptional permission for the import of Russian oil for 30 days is interpreted as a measure to address India’s urgent situation. It is also reported that negotiations have been conducted to redirect the course of more than 10 Russian oil tankers originally bound for China to India.

For Pakistan, even such measures are difficult due to its economic crisis. The Pakistani government has issued a nationwide school closure order and mandated a four-day workweek for public institutions and companies to save energy. Bangladesh has also announced a nationwide closure of universities. These are reminiscent of measures taken in South Korea during the oil shock of the 1970s, such as vehicle operation restrictions and school closures, now being echoed in these countries.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the international community have announced plans to release over 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves—the largest amount ever—to stabilize international oil prices. However, experts assert that the current energy crisis is unlikely to be fundamentally resolved until the United States suspends its attacks on Iran and both sides agree to a full ceasefire.

In South Korea’s case, strategic oil reserves are sufficient, and the share of Middle Eastern oil imports—which once exceeded 90%—has now decreased to around 70%, providing a buffer. The remaining 20 percentage points have been replaced with US crude oil. While this was not a preemptive response to the current situation, South Korea’s efforts to diversify energy imports have ultimately increased its crisis response capability.

Experts predict that, as a result of this crisis, major oil-importing countries including South Korea will further reduce their dependence on Middle Eastern oil and accelerate diversification of supply sources. As geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz once again emerge as a core issue in global energy security strategy, the world is watching closely to see when the Iran situation will be resolved.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.