[New York Stock Exchange] Markets Open Flat as February CPI Meets Expectations
Strategic Reserve Release Brings Market Stability Despite Rising Oil Prices
Before the impact of inflation from the Iran war was reflected, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February matched expectations, leading the three major U.S. stock indices to open flat on March 11 (local time).
At 9:58 a.m. on the same day at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 259.27 points (0.54%) from the previous trading day at 47,447.24. The S&P 500 index, focused on large-cap stocks, was up 1.85 points (0.03%) at 6,783.33, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index rose 96.52 points (0.43%) to 22,793.62.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the February CPI rose 2.4% compared to the same month a year ago. On a monthly basis, it increased by 0.3%. The core CPI, which excludes the more volatile energy and food sectors, rose by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month.
In detail, energy prices in February, after seasonal adjustment, rose 0.6% from the previous month, which is 0.5% higher than the same period last year.
While gasoline prices fell 5.6% year-on-year, natural gas and electricity prices increased during the same period. In some regions of the United States, prices are rising due to increased power demand from data centers.
The CPI released on this day did not reflect the impact of rising international oil prices following the U.S. and Israel's airstrikes on Iran that began on February 28.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is reportedly set to recommend the release of 400 million barrels of crude oil— the largest in IEA history— to respond to oil price volatility caused by the aftermath of the war.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 2% from the previous day to about $85 per barrel, but the news of a potential strategic reserve release has somewhat stabilized the market.
Refining stocks such as ExxonMobil (+1.59%) and Chevron (+1.15%) climbed. Among energy stocks, Occidental Petroleum rose by 1.81%, Diamondback Energy fell by 2.50%, and APA gained 1.46%, showing a mixed trend.
Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the volume of crude oil release proposed by the IEA could offset 12 days of oil exports. The average daily crude oil export volume is estimated at about 15.4 million barrels. They also analyzed that if 50% of the emergency release is stored in OECD commercial storage facilities, oil prices could fall by $7.
Emmanuel Co, Head of European Equity Strategy at Barclays, stated in a report, "President Trump’s suggestion that the war could soon end after an unusually sharp rise in oil price volatility implies he has reached his 'pain threshold,'" adding, "This has heightened market expectations for a rapid easing of tensions."
He also analyzed, "The longer the surge in oil prices persists, the greater the downside risks to corporate earnings and valuations."
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