[New York Stock Exchange] Oil Surpasses $100 Ten Days Into War... All Three Major Indexes Decline

Khamenei's Second Son Elected as New Leader
"Ultra-Hardline Resistance" Against U.S. Expected to Continue
Soaring International Oil Prices Amid Fears of Prolonged War
Investor Sentiment Plummets... Indexes Remain Weak

As Iran elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as its new Supreme Leader, concerns about a prolonged war with the United States caused all three major U.S. stock indexes to open lower again on March 9 (local time).

At 9:53 a.m. on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 755.98 points (1.59%) at 46,745.57, compared to the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index, which is focused on large-cap stocks, dropped 99.13 points (1.47%) to 6,640.89, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Index fell 303.30 points (1.35%) to 22,084.38.

The Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body responsible for selecting Iran's Supreme Leader, announced the previous day that "Mojtaba has been elected as the third leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran by an overwhelming majority." Following the news, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also pledged allegiance to Mojtaba.

Mojtaba is classified as a hardliner who is willing to fight against the United States at all costs. With Iran selecting Mojtaba as its Supreme Leader, the country is expected to maintain an "ultra-hardline resistance policy." As concerns grew that the conflict with the United States could drag on into a prolonged war, investor sentiment weakened, leading to a sharp drop in the indexes.

Aviation stocks are plunging due to concerns about a prolonged war. Delta Air Lines is down 4.61%, American Airlines down 5.32%, and United Airlines down 6.52%, all showing declines.

The largest-cap stocks are all falling as well. Nvidia is down 0.72%, Apple down 0.86%, Microsoft down 1.14%, Amazon down 1.24%, TSMC down 1.10%, Alphabet A down 1.51%, Broadcom down 1.10%, and Tesla down 1.53%, with all showing weakness.

In particular, both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which serve as benchmarks for international oil prices, have surpassed $100 per barrel, heightening concerns about stagflation—a situation where rising prices and slowing economic growth occur simultaneously.

Thierry Wizman of Macquarie Group commented, "The war between the United States and Iran is testing the resilience of the energy sector to shocks," adding, "This is significant because central bankers will remember that the broad-based increase in commodity prices in 2022 led to a sharp rise in consumer prices."

According to Investing.com, at the same time, WTI was trading at $100.26 per barrel, up 10.28% from the previous session. Brent crude was also up 10.16% at $102.11 per barrel.

Refinery stocks are showing a slight upward trend due to the surge in oil prices. ExxonMobil is up 0.81%, Chevron up 0.29%, and Lockheed Martin up 0.28%. For energy companies, Occidental Petroleum is up 1.28%, Diamondback Energy up 1.35%, and APA up 0.18%, all posting gains.

Ed Yardeni, an investment strategist at Yardeni Research, stated, "If investors begin to expect a stagflation scenario like in the 1970s—where inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously—it is impossible to rule out the possibility of a bear market," adding, "If the oil price shock persists, the Federal Reserve's dual mandate will face a dilemma between two risks: rising inflation and increasing unemployment."

The Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against six major currencies, is currently up 0.20% at 99.182. This is interpreted as capital flowing into the dollar as preference for safe assets expands amid geopolitical crisis.

Ed Yardeni raised his projection for the possibility of a market crash during the remainder of this year from the previous 20% to 35%, stating, "It is a period of rapid change. The risk of a steep sell-off in the U.S. stock market is growing this year."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.