[Good Morning Stock Market] "War, Indicators, Earnings... Three Key Factors Shaking Markets This Week"

KOSPI Expected Range: 5,150-5,800 Points
Hormuz Blockade and Soaring Oil Prices as Key Variables
CPI and AI Software Earnings Also in Focus

Securities analysts have noted that the Korean stock market this week should pay close attention to several key events, including the potential for war between the United States and Iran and the direction of oil prices, as well as the release of major U.S. economic indicators and earnings announcements from artificial intelligence (AI) software companies.

On March 9, Kiwoom Securities stated, "The domestic stock market will continue to experience volatility as it digests a series of major domestic and international events," setting the weekly expected range for the KOSPI at 5,150 to 5,800 points.

Middle East War and Oil Prices: The Biggest Variables for the Stock Market

A trader is working at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in the United States. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

This week as well, the Middle East war and the direction of oil prices are expected to be the most significant variables affecting the market. With passage through the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked, news of oil production cuts from Middle Eastern countries such as Kuwait is fueling a rise in international oil prices. U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that “there will be no deal without Iran’s unconditional surrender” is also raising expectations that the war will be prolonged.

However, Seonghoon Lee, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, emphasized, "Considering the fundamentals and policy momentum of the domestic stock market, any correction caused by the war could provide a buying opportunity."

He added, "While risk aversion could become more prominent in the Korean stock market, which is heavily dependent on manufacturing and oil, Korea has stockpiled enough oil to last 208 days (based on EIA standards). In addition, the government is taking steps to secure stable oil supplies, such as urgently importing approximately 6 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE)."

He continued, "As time goes by, Iran will inevitably become more aware of its diminishing capacity to sustain the war," adding, "For President Trump, a combination of surging oil prices and slowing economic growth could lead to declining approval ratings ahead of the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November."

"Oracle and Adobe Earnings... AI Investment Soundness Also in Focus"

Alongside geopolitical factors, U.S. inflation data is also cited as a key variable for this week. Lee stated, "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released this week ahead of next week’s March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, turns out to be higher than expected, concerns over further inflation—especially in the wake of recent oil price increases—will intensify. In that scenario, expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could be undermined, leading to greater market volatility."

Attention should also be paid to the earnings of AI software-related companies. Earnings announcements for Oracle are scheduled for March 11 and for Adobe on March 13. Lee commented, "Oracle’s stock price experienced a sharp decline after last quarter’s earnings came in below market expectations. With recent issues such as some private equity funds with high exposure to AI tech stocks imposing redemption limits, Oracle’s earnings will be a critical indicator for assessing the soundness of AI-related investments and cost concerns."

Meanwhile, on March 6 (local time), the New York stock market closed sharply lower across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which focuses on blue-chip stocks, closed at 47,501.55, down 453.19 points (-0.95%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 index, which focuses on large-cap stocks, ended at 6,740.02, down 90.69 points (-1.33%), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at 22,387.68, a decline of 361.31 points (-1.59%) from the previous session.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.