'Theocratic Succession' 35% vs 'Establishment of Democratic Government' 25%... Four Scenarios Predicted by Forbes [US-Iran War]

35% Chance of Continued Retaliatory Attacks if Cleric Succeeds as Supreme Leader

Citizen Groups' Organizational Capacity Key Variable in 25% Democratic Government Scenario

On March 1, Forbes, the American business magazine, outlined four major scenarios regarding the political situation after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in airstrikes by the United States and Israel. Forbes projected that, regardless of which path events take, it will take at least 60 to 90 days to resolve the situation.

Smoke is rising in Tehran, which was bombed on the 28th of last month (local time). Photo by AFP.

The most likely scenario, with a probability of 35 percent, is that another cleric succeeds to the position of Supreme Leader, thereby maintaining the existing theocratic regime. In this case, the new leader is highly likely to rally the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and continue retaliatory attacks targeting Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East.

The second scenario, with a probability of 30 percent, envisions divisions among IRGC factions and regional warlords, leading to a prolonged power struggle. Forbes analyzed that if such a power struggle intensifies Iran’s political turmoil, a sharp rise in international oil prices will be inevitable.

The third scenario, with a probability of 25 percent, is that Iranian citizens take advantage of the absence of the Khamenei regime to seize government facilities and establish a democratic government. However, Forbes assessed that the citizens’ forces lack sufficient organization, making it difficult to form an interim government. During this vacuum, there is a possibility that the IRGC could suppress the citizens and regain power.

The final scenario, with a probability of 10 percent, is the complete collapse of Iran’s state functions. Although this is the least likely scenario, neighboring countries are reportedly preparing for it on the assumption of potential mass refugee influxes and other contingencies.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.