Iran Blockades Strait of Hormuz... Could International Oil Prices Exceed $100? [US-Iran War]

Fears of Escalation After Reports of Khamenei's Death
Shockwaves Hit the Virtual Asset Market as Well

AP Yonhap News

On February 28 (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump officially announced the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, raising concerns over a sharp surge in international oil prices. As reports emerged that Iran had moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz—a passage that accounts for over 20% of global oil shipments—some analysts are predicting that oil prices could briefly soar to as high as $100 per barrel.

International oil prices have already begun to rise. On the previous day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $67.02 per barrel, up 2.78% from the previous session, while Brent crude ended at $72.87 per barrel, up 2.87%. These are the highest prices since July of last year. Market experts anticipate a sharp increase in international oil prices as the impact of the Iranian airstrikes and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei are reflected in the market following the weekend.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran initiated in response to the airstrikes, is also expected to drive oil prices higher. On this day, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran stated, "We are enforcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following invasions by the United States and Israel." According to Reuters, some ships have already altered their routes after receiving news of the Strait being closed to navigation.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint through which more than 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade passes, so a significant shock to oil markets is anticipated. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Will Hares and Salih Yilmaz projected that Brent crude prices could rise to around $80 per barrel in the short term.

Should the conflict spread to surrounding areas, some analysts believe prices could surge to $100 per barrel. The Barclays Energy Analysis Team commented, "The worst-case scenario could unfold during trading on March 2, when oil futures markets reopen," adding, "Given the current situation, potential supply disruptions stemming from worsening security in the Middle East could push Brent prices up to $100 per barrel."

Amid heightened risk aversion following the Iranian airstrikes, the virtual asset market has also seen declines. Bitcoin at one point dropped to $63,038, falling below a key psychological threshold, before rebounding to the $65,000 range later in the day. According to digital asset data provider CoinGecko, approximately $128 billion (about 185 trillion won) in market capitalization vanished from the digital asset market immediately following the airstrikes.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.