"Multiple-home Ownership" 71 Times, "Speculation" 31 Times...Policy Signals Read from President Lee's SNS [Real Estate AtoZ]

Analysis of 25 posts from January 23 to February 21...Directly targeting "multiple-home ownership"
The rise in Seoul apartment prices has slowed to about half its previous pace over the past month

In real estate-related posts President Lee Jaemyung uploaded to X (formerly Twitter) over the past month, the word that appeared most frequently was 'multiple homes' (including 'multiple homeowners'), with a total of 71 mentions. When the nation's chief executive repeatedly brings up a specific keyword, it is interpreted as a signal to the market about the government's policy direction. This suggests that the government's real estate policy is centered on regulating speculative multiple homeowners, rather than those who own homes for personal residence.

According to an analysis by The Asia Business Daily on February 22 of 25 real estate-related posts President Lee uploaded to X over the 30 days from January 23 to the previous day, the next most frequent words after 'multiple homes' (each with 31 mentions) were tax-related terms (such as capital gains tax, comprehensive real estate holding tax, tax system) and 'speculation,' which tied for second place. 'Real estate' and 'lease' each appeared 30 times, tying for fourth place, while 'government' and 'normalization' (including 'abnormal') each had 28 mentions, tying for sixth. 'Citizens' and 'privileges/benefits' each appeared 24 times, and 'loans' appeared 13 times.

During the presidential campaign, President Lee had downplayed real estate issues, saying, "I will not use taxes to control housing prices" and "We should follow market principles." However, starting with his New Year's press conference last month, he has raised the intensity of his messaging. While stating, "Real estate policies through the tax system are a last resort," he also said, "If things cross the line and become a social problem, we must of course use tax measures," and "If necessary, we can always introduce additional measures such as the land transaction permit system." Two days later, he began to actively make real estate-related statements on social media (SNS).

Beyond Verbal Warnings: Immediate Launch of Financial Sector Loan Task Force

President Lee Jaemyung is speaking at a Cabinet meeting held at the Blue House on the 10th. Yonhap News

The frequency and intensity of the president's remarks on a particular issue serve as indicators of policy direction and speed. Concrete policy actions soon followed. After President Lee first raised the issue of loans for multiple homeowners on February 13, within about a week, the Financial Services Commission convened all corporate lending executives from the financial sector to review the status and approval procedures for loans to rental business owners. The Financial Supervisory Service, under the direction of Governor Lee Chanjin, launched a 'Response to Loans for Multiple Homeowners' task force.

Within a month, the scope of President Lee's policy discourse expanded rapidly. On January 23, he declared an end to the deferment of the higher capital gains tax. On February 8-9, he moved on to the abolition of special privileges for registered rental business owners and the system for property acquisition by rental businesses. After first mentioning the issue of loan extensions for multiple homeowners on February 13, by February 20—just a week later—he directly instructed the cabinet and his office to review regulatory measures. In just one month, the agenda expanded from tax policy to rental systems, finance, and administrative orders.

'Privileges/benefits' and 'normalization' were used to justify this policy expansion. The government argues that it is not creating new regulations, but rather restoring the original state by removing improper privileges that fueled speculation. A representative example is defining the end of the higher capital gains tax deferment as "implementing a principle established four years ago." President Lee framed the clean-up of illegal valley developments, the KOSPI reaching 5,000 points, and amendments to the Commercial Act all as part of 'normalization,' then placed real estate policy within that same context.

From "What Do You Think?" to "I Instructed"

As the government has repeatedly confirmed in recent days its policy to end the deferment of the higher capital gains tax for owners of multiple homes, on the 8th a notice about property-related taxes was posted on the glass wall of a real estate agent's office in Jamsil-dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul. Yonhap News

The tone of his statements has become increasingly forceful. In the beginning, his remarks were mostly in the form of questions, such as "This is a topic we should debate" and "What do you all think?" From January 31, however, the tone shifted dramatically with statements like, "You will soon realize this was your last chance." In early February, he broadened his targets, challenging the media with phrases like "bogus reporting" and "Why do you make false reports?" and criticizing the opposition with "It's time to stop defending catastrophic real estate speculation." From February 8 to 10, he presented a concrete direction for institutional changes, such as a phased abolition (within 1-2 years, limited to apartments) of special privileges exempting registered rental housing from additional capital gains tax.

On February 13, he shifted his focus to the financial sector. After asking, "Is it fair to grant additional loan extension benefits to multiple homeowners who, despite having had years of opportunities and even receiving capital gains tax reductions, still refuse to reduce their holdings when their loan maturities come due?"—within a week, he announced, "I have instructed the cabinet and my office to review the current status of loan extensions and refinancing for existing multiple homeowners and to devise concrete regulatory measures."

Rather than blaming individual multiple homeowners on moral grounds, President Lee placed responsibility on politicians who granted these privileges and cited the supply-demand dynamics of the rental market as the rationale for regulation. On February 18, he made this clear by stating, "The real social evil is not multiple homeowners, but the politicians who enabled their holdings to become profitable."

The previous day, he directly refuted the so-called 'rental market crisis theory' raised in the market. He responded to concerns about instability in the rental market due to a reduction in available properties by saying, "When multiple homeowners sell, the supply of monthly and yearly rental units decreases, but as non-homeowners purchase homes, the demand for such rentals also drops at the same time." He further challenged the opposition's core logic by asking, "Will increasing the number of multiple homeowners and rental businesses beyond current levels really provide stable housing for ordinary people?"

The market is also reacting to the president's continued strong messaging. According to Korea Ratings·KR, in the third week of February, the rate of increase in Seoul apartment sale prices was 0.15%, which is half the level of the fourth week of January (0.31%), marking the third consecutive week of deceleration. In the three Gangnam districts, the increases were also more modest: Gangnam 0.01%, Seocho 0.05%, and Songpa 0.06%. Gwacheon City in Gyeonggi Province (-0.03%) saw its first decline in 88 weeks since May 2024.

Policy Tools Delayed by the Moon Administration, Taken Up Early

However, there have been past instances where, despite initial slowdowns in apartment price growth after new regulations, the market ultimately overcame the policies. Researcher Im Minyoung at the Korea Local Tax Institute identified three main reasons for the Moon Jae-in administration's failure in real estate policy in a 2024 paper published in the Korean Association of Space & Environment Societies' journal 'Space and Society': the contradiction of simultaneously implementing higher capital gains taxes for multiple homeowners while offering tax benefits for rental business owners, delays in strengthening property holding taxes due to political burdens, and belated supply measures. The analysis also found that the tendency of market participants to "hold out a bit longer" in anticipation that home prices would rise further helped them circumvent policies, accelerating policy failure.

The current administration is deploying measures that the Moon Jae-in administration either delayed or was slow to implement, right from the start. It first moved to abolish privileges for rental business owners and has been pushing loan regulations since the early days of its term. Unlike the past, when demand-suppression policies in the early stages led to supply anxiety and panic buying, this administration, within just three months of taking office, announced a target to supply 1.35 million housing units in the Seoul metropolitan area by 2030. It has also elevated the long-standing ad hoc public housing promotion task force, which had operated as a temporary team for 21 years, to the status of a first-grade (senior-level) Housing Supply Promotion Headquarters, which serves as the central control tower for housing supply. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and Korea Land & Housing Corporation (LH) are now working together in a joint task force in the same physical space.

Unlike the past, when frequent policy shifts and lack of coordination among ministries created loopholes for the market to exploit, President Lee's daily direct messages are helping to curb the market's 'wait-and-see' sentiment. With the KOSPI surpassing the 5,800 mark and capital market yields rising, the economic incentive for multiple homeowners to maintain their holdings—despite the risks of higher capital gains tax and stricter loan regulations—has diminished, which works to the current administration's advantage.

However, the 'strengthening of the property holding tax,' which is often discussed in the market, has not been mentioned by the president. The fact that the most impactful policy tool remains unrevealed creates uncertainty, which in itself is putting pressure on multiple homeowners to sell. In the market, whether the president will play this card is now seen as a key variable that could determine the next phase of policy.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.