No Need to Fear a Short-Term Correction? It May Be a Buying-the-Dip Opportunity Instead

Published 04 Feb.2026 09:27(KST)

The upper-end target level for the KOSPI in the first half of the year has been raised to the 5,800 range. Analysts say that profit forecasts are rising rapidly, mainly in the semiconductor sector, bringing the 12‑month forward earnings per share (EPS) level higher earlier than expected and pulling up the top of the index range. As the pace of increase in forward EPS offsets valuation burdens, a structure has emerged in which the forward price‑earnings ratio (PER) is actually falling even though the index has surpassed the 5,200 level. Since there is still room for "normalization" back toward the historical average PER, some diagnose that even if a short‑term correction occurs, the likelihood of the overall uptrend being damaged is limited.

The center of gravity of profit improvement is concentrated in large‑cap semiconductor stocks, and it is estimated that most of the 2026 KOSPI net profit forecast will come from this sector. The current market phase is where earnings momentum and policy momentum are overlapping, leading to the view that the upper end of the index range should remain open until forward EPS rolls over. In the short term, a cooling‑off process from overheating is considered inevitable, but there is talk that the upward trend could resume after March. From a medium‑term perspective, a "speed control" strategy is being suggested: maintain or increase equity exposure overall, but once the index moves above the 5,800 level, gradually raise the weight of dividend and defensive stocks while managing volatility.

No Need to Fear a Short-Term Correction? It May Be a Buying-the-Dip Opportunity Instead

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