'9 out of 10 times' Professor who predicted US presidential election, forecasted 'This Person' as President

Harris Predicts 8 of 13 Keys Favor Yoon's Victory

Alan Lichtman, the American University history professor known as the 'Nostradamus' of the U.S. presidential election, predicted that Vice President Harris will win this election. He is famous for correctly predicting the outcome of 9 out of the 10 U.S. presidential elections held over the past 40 years.

Vice President Harris (left) and former President Trump (right)
[Photo by Yonhap News]

On the 31st local time, Professor Lichtman stated, "My prediction from September 5 remains unchanged," adding, "As I said then, I am not swayed by polls, expert opinions, or events occurring during the campaign." Earlier, on September 5, two months before the election, he told The New York Times (NYT) that Vice President Harris would defeat former President Donald Trump.

He cited the 13 keys to the White House, a set of criteria he developed by analyzing U.S. presidential elections since 1860, including the incumbent party's standing (whether they control the House), primary elections, incumbency status, presence of a third-party candidate, long-term and short-term economic performance, policy changes, social unrest, scandals, foreign and military successes or failures, and the charisma of the incumbent and challenger.

Professor Lichtman predicted Harris would win because she leads in 8 of these 13 keys. He pointed out that there was no other candidate within the Democratic Party to challenge Harris, and economic performance favored her. The lower level of social unrest also worked in Harris's favor. However, he noted that the Democrats' failure to secure more House seats in the 2022 midterm elections compared to 2018 was a disadvantage for Harris.

Professor Allen Lichtman, who has correctly predicted 9 out of 10 U.S. presidential elections.
[Photo by AFP/ Yonhap News]

In Trump's case, he was favorable in 3 categories. Lichtman assessed that "Trump scores higher than Harris in terms of charisma." Indeed, other experts have analyzed that Harris is at a disadvantage because, like Franklin Roosevelt?the first Democrat to serve four terms?one must be appealing to voters across party lines. The unresolved Gaza Strip war and the Ukraine war also favor Trump.

Previously, Professor Lichtman predicted Ronald Reagan's re-election in the 1984 presidential election and also correctly forecasted the victories of George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, former President Trump, and President Joe Biden.

Notably, in the 2016 election, Lichtman predicted Trump's victory despite polls favoring former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, which became a topic of discussion after he was proven right. However, he missed the mark in the tightly contested 2000 election between Republican George W. Bush (Bush Jr.) and Democratic former Vice President Al Gore, where he predicted Gore's victory.

His only incorrect prediction was in the 2000 election between Republican George W. Bush (Bush Jr.) and Democratic former Vice President Al Gore, which was so close that it led to recount controversies.

Meanwhile, there are experts who have made opposite predictions to Lichtman. Nate Silver, a famous statistician known as the 'U.S. election guru,' has issued a final forecast that former President Donald Trump will seize victory in this year's presidential election. Silver said he reached this conclusion after synthesizing the latest polls from battleground states conducted by The New York Times (NYT) and Morning Consult.

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