[News in War History] Moldova Fears First Loss of Sovereignty in the 21st Century Amid Russian Invasion Threat

Russia Expands Occupied Territories in Ukraine Raising Fears of Escalation
Population and Military Strength Far Behind Ukraine

On the 24th of last month (local time), a protest condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine on its second anniversary continued in front of the Russian Embassy in Chișinău, the capital of Moldova. [Image Source=EPA·Yonhap News]

As the war in Ukraine entered its third year and Russia began pushing Ukrainian forces back on the eastern front, all of Europe is increasingly concerned about the potential for the conflict to escalate. In particular, Moldova—Ukraine’s neighbor and known as the poorest country in Europe—is increasingly fearing a direct invasion by Russia.

Like Ukraine, Moldova is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With a population and military force less than one-tenth the size of Ukraine’s, there are growing concerns that Moldova would be unable to withstand a full-scale invasion by Russia. Additionally, the pro-Russian separatist region along Moldova’s eastern border has requested protection from Russia, fueling fears that war may be imminent.

This article will explore the history and current reality of Moldova—a country that fought hard for its independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but now faces mounting concerns about losing its sovereignty due to Russia's potential aggression.

Transnistria Requests Protection from Russia … "We Will Review with Caution"

On the 28th of last month (local time), the parliament of Transnistria (Russian name: Pridnestrovie), a pro-Russian separatist region in Moldova, held a special session and adopted a resolution requesting assistance from Russia. [Image source=AP·Yonhap News]

First, let's look at recent news. According to AFP on the 28th (local time), a special session of the parliament was held that day in Transnistria (Russian name: Pridnestrovie)—Moldova’s pro-Russian separatist region located along its eastern border—where a resolution requesting assistance from Russia was adopted.

The reason for this resolution is said to be that the Moldovan government recently initiated an economic war by imposing customs duties. The separatists claim that, earlier this year, Moldovan authorities introduced tariffs on goods exported to Transnistria and restricted transportation to routes controlled by the Moldovan government, putting social and economic pressure on the region.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded promptly to Transnistria’s appeal for help, stating, "Protecting the interests of Transnistrian citizens is one of Russia’s priorities," and emphasized, "All requests will be carefully reviewed by the relevant departments." As a result, concerns are rising that a Russian military intervention could become a reality.

Roman, Hun, Hungarian, Mongol, Ottoman, Russian ... A Land with Countless Rulers

[Image Source=U.S. Department of State Website]

It is rare to see central and local governments within one country in such stark confrontation. This extraordinary situation is the tragic result of Moldova’s complex history.

Moldova shares its historical roots with Romania and was once part of what was known as Dacia during the ancient Greek and Roman eras. After Roman rule, numerous peoples—including the Goths, Huns, Avars, Bulgars, Magyars, Cumans, and Rus—invaded or passed through the region. In the 13th century, Moldova was invaded by the Mongols. As the region served as a gateway from Ukraine to Western Europe, countless peoples traversed it over time.

In 1359, the Principality of Moldavia—the precursor to modern Romania—was founded, and the people of both Romania and Moldova began to form their national identity. The name "Moldova" is derived from the Principality of Moldavia.

However, in the early 16th century, the region fell under the control of the Ottoman Empire—the forerunner of today’s Türkiye—and was ruled by the Ottomans for a long period. As the Ottoman Empire weakened in the 18th century, the territory of the former principality was divided between the Austrian and Russian Empires, and today’s Moldova came under Russian rule.

Moving into the 20th century, Moldova won independence from Russia during World War I in 1917 and successfully unified with the Kingdom of Romania. However, during World War II in 1944, the region was seized again—this time by the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, reunification with Romania was considered, but due to severe economic hardship in both countries, they were unable to unite and Moldova was forced to become an independent state.

Unlike Romania, Moldova—which had long been under Russian rule—had a significant Russian population, especially in the eastern border region. These residents established a pro-Russian separatist regime, breaking away from the Moldovan central government. This is the region known as Transnistria. Approximately 1,500 Russian troops are reportedly stationed there to safeguard its independence from Moldova.

Moldova Has Only Around 7,500 Standing Soldiers … Reserve Mobilization Also Difficult

In November last year, Moldovan soldiers took a commemorative photo in front of an armored vehicle provided by Germany. Moldova is known as the poorest country in Europe, with almost no armored forces, and its standing army is reported to number only about 7,500.

The Transnistria conflict, shaped by Moldova’s complex history, is a matter of concern for the whole of Europe. With the Russian military presence there being significant, and as Russia gains ground in Ukraine, there are rising fears that Russian forces could also seize the border regions adjoining Moldova.

Moldova, in a precarious position, is seeking military aid from European countries, but the situation is not favorable. Prior to the outbreak of the current war, Ukraine had a population of over 40 million people and a standing army of about 200,000 soldiers. In contrast, Moldova’s military strength is less than one-tenth that of Ukraine’s.

According to the World Bank (WB), as of 2021, Moldova's population was about 2.61 million—fewer people than the number of reservists in South Korea. Its standing army consists of only about 7,500 soldiers. Due to financial difficulties, all Soviet-era tanks have been decommissioned, leaving just a few dozen armored vehicles and artillery pieces. Scarcely able to be called anything other than Europe’s poorest country, Moldova’s severe economic hardship means it has little capacity to sustain a prolonged war.

If Russia truly launches a full-scale assault, it is doubtful how long Moldova could hold out. Moreover, should Moldova fall to Russia, there is a real possibility that Romania—essentially a sibling nation—could intervene, raising fears of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Depending on whether Moldova can successfully defend its sovereignty, the security environment of Europe is likely to change significantly.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.