Impact of Low Birthrate and Aging... Japan's Population to Fall Below 100 Million in 33 Years

Population Issues Research Institute Announces Future Population Projections

Expected Decline to 87 Million by 2070
Down to 70% Compared to 2020 Levels

The pathway leading to Sensoji, a Buddhist temple in Asakusa, a famous tourist destination in Tokyo, Japan, is bustling with tourists coming and going.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

It is projected that Japan's population will fall below 100 million by 2056.

According to a report by public broadcaster NHK on the 26th, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research of Japan announced future population projections based on the results of the 2020 "Kokusei" (National Census) survey.

The institute forecasted that Japan's population, including foreigners, will decline from 126.15 million in 2020 to below 100 million by 2056. By 2070, it is expected to decrease further to 87 million, which would be about 70% of the 2020 baseline level over 50 years.

Previously, Japan's total population peaked at 128.06 million in 2010. It has been declining for 12 consecutive years, recording 124.95 million last year.

Additionally, the institute projected that the proportion of elderly people aged 65 and over will rise from 28.6% in 2020 to 38.7% by 2070. The average life expectancy of the elderly is also expected to exceed 90 years by 2070. In 2020, the average life expectancy was 82 years for men and 88 years for women, but by 2070, it is expected to increase to 86 years for men and 92 years for women.

The annual number of births is predicted to fall below 700,000 starting from 2043, which is three years earlier than the projection made six years ago. Last year, Japan's annual number of births was 799,728, marking the first time it dropped below 800,000.

Japan's total fertility rate (the expected number of children a woman will have in her lifetime) slightly increased after hitting a record low of 1.26 in 2005, but approached a low point again at 1.3 in 2021.

Meanwhile, the proportion of foreigners in Japan's total population is expected to grow to 10.8% by 2070.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.