Risk of Armed Conflict at Record High... 'Taiwan Crisis Theory' Following US-China Tensions

Hong Kong Think Tank Analyzes "China's Military Unification with Taiwan Is a Matter of Time"

US Aegis-class cruiser Shiloh (CG-67) passing through the Taiwan Strait. Photo by US Navy website [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Heeyoon] A Hong Kong think tank has analyzed that the risk of armed conflict surrounding the Taiwan Strait has escalated to an all-time high, making the Taiwan crisis theory a reality.

According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 21st, the newly established think tank China Cross-Strait Academy stated in a report on the 19th that the current risk index of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait is 7.21 on a scale from -10 to 10.

The China Cross-Strait Academy is an organization supported by the Chinese Communist Party, founded by Lei Xiying, a well-known Chinese current affairs commentator and former executive member of the China Youth Federation. In their report, they considered factors such as the military strength of both China and Taiwan, trade relations, public opinion, political events, and alliance support, defining the current relationship as a "situation just before war."

The report analyzed that the current risk index is higher than the 6.7 risk index during the early 1950s when the Kuomintang forces led by Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) fled to Taiwan after the Chinese Civil War.

Lei Xiying stated, "The changing political dynamics surrounding the Taiwan Strait and the close ties between the US and Taiwan are two destructive factors increasing the risk of conflict," adding, "If the current trend continues, China's armed unification of Taiwan is only a matter of time."

On the other hand, Lim John, a former researcher at Taiwan's Central Research Institute, challenged the claim that the current situation is worse than in the 1950s, observing, "Given the high uncertainty, if either side misjudges or acts wrongly, the risk surrounding the Taiwan Strait could rise to an unprecedented level."

He further pointed out, "When US-China relations are controllable, China has believed Taiwan is not a problem. However, US-China relations deteriorated during the Donald Trump administration and show no signs of improvement under the Joe Biden administration."

Meanwhile, on the 30th of last month, the British current affairs weekly The Economist explained that the 'strategic ambiguity' that has controlled US-China conflicts in Taiwan is collapsing, making Taiwan currently the most precarious region in the world.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.